Predicting Short Term Vs Long Term Moves

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Fundlord, Nov 30, 2015.

Easiest Timeframe To Predict Moves On

  1. Intraday

    18 vote(s)
    56.3%
  2. Multi Day

    8 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. Multi Week

    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
  1. WildBill

    WildBill

    Very well put.

    Hard to do with futures though because of holding seven to 10 days and over the weekend. Larger stop is hard to stomach as well. But if it is at a daily support you can get your stop to even pretty quick.
     
    #11     Nov 30, 2015
  2. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    When you see risk possibility due to a closed market, consider buying premium instead of the instrument.

    For example, last Friday I was bullish AAPL for a Monday morning pop, but I knew I had to hold through the weekend, so just went for weekly premium and eventhough the trade worked very well, risk was precisely defined in the rare case I would be wrong :D

    Do not be afraid of the overnight or weekend holds, find ways around it to secure risk instead of skipping them, in other words, don't invite unlimited risk, but don't skip opportunity either.
     
    #12     Nov 30, 2015
    VPhantom and FCXoptions like this.
  3. Predicting the future is gambling, to me. -- It's way easier to master one market, if that's all you focus on.o_O
    Pick a soulmate in the market...and understand it on another level. (trade one thing only)
     
    #13     Nov 30, 2015
    wartrace likes this.
  4. WildBill

    WildBill

    I'm with you on that.

    I LOVE options for that very fact. Options allow you to buy half size (relative to point value) if you want as well. Good upside, defined risk and no stops to get run.

    Just bought IWM 120.5 weeklies as a sim trade to get my feet wet again.

    I have a fairly consistent system with weeklies ( if the stars line up right :) There are usually about 2-3 really good QQQ, IWM and SPY weekly trades a month. I love buying for $0.20 or less on Monday and selling at $0.75 - $1.00 on Friday.
     
    #14     Dec 1, 2015
  5. Redneck

    Redneck

    Easiest Timeframe To Predict Moves On


    Fact - it does not matter - it all the exact same

    $70.42 - is the exact same on all TFs

    Any given time - is the exact same on all TFs

    Any give MM/DD/YY - is the exact same on all TFs

    S or R - is the exact same on all TFs

    A horizontal channel..., or vertical channel - is the exact same on all TFs

    Risk - is the exact same on all TFs

    Trade breaks down the exact same place - on all TFs

    A PT / whatever PT - is the exact same on all TFs

    All active participants actions - are reflected exactly the same - on all TFs



    What is different:

    The speed (amount of time) - one has to evaluate..., act..., recover..., repeat


    The advantages:

    Smaller TFs provide a look into the inner workings of a given larger TF bar / TF

    Larger TFs provide an overall view of the landscape / smaller TF(s)


    Whether you agree or not - it the way it is

    So damn much mis-information floating around..., it not even funny

    RN
     
    #15     Dec 1, 2015
    VPhantom likes this.
  6. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    I strongly disagree with most of what you wrote above, but I'm sure our views of price action differ.

    Many ways to skin this ugly cat, therefore, it is much more important not to impose, fact :D
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2015
    #16     Dec 1, 2015
  7. Redneck

    Redneck

    Feel free to disprove to whatever ability you're able

    Pick the instrument..., pick the TFs - have at it

    ;)

    RN
     
    #17     Dec 1, 2015
  8. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Unfortunately to do so I would need to disclose a very strong edge and understandably so, that is just not something I'm willing to do.
     
    #18     Dec 1, 2015
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Good Lord!!!!! we certainly wouldn't want that..... LOL

    RN
     
    #19     Dec 1, 2015
  10. DDR

    DDR

    Agreed ... it might bring down the establishment and create world chaos
     
    #20     Dec 1, 2015