I suspect the first fed rate high will send the market to the sky. I honestly think this trade is analogous to my long Bond call right before the debt downgrade in 2011. The whole world was leaning short into that event. I believe the same will be true in Dec and the shorts will get lit up. I think people are really underestimating how bullish the first fed rate hike will be.
Markets agree with you. From Zachs 9/28/2015, a retest of Aug lows and a Yellin speech was a start of present rallies in global equities. From Zachs 9/28 "Late Thursday Yellin indicated the lift-off option is very much on the table for later this year. She was also optimistic about the US economy. She said FOMC members expect headwinds to economic growth will continue to fade thereby boosting the economys' underlying strength" A lot of monthly and quarterly Aups in things I follow. I am guilty of "expecting" some markets reaction ( possibly excluding USD and SPY to a degree) to a rate hike to be the same as in the past but present PA does not agree with that.
Years ago I swore that I would never try to pick tops or bottoms but current nat gas prices are sooo tempting!
The forward curve is pretty fairly priced. We just hit 4 trillion cubic feet of underground storage for the first time ever with a mild winter ahead of us. Sell the rallies.
NL's getting ugly in energies. Interesting to note, for those of you who track multiple time periods of NL averages...one of the biggest disconnects in short term vs 30 day NL in crude oil I've seen in a LONG time.
i haven't scored mine in a while. i noticed 3 Aups in CL last week though. where are you guys seeing the CL number line?
going into tomorrow, I have a 30 day @ -14 and a 5 day @ +2. 5 day was +6 going into today. That differential of 16 for tomorrow is actually coming down. Our modified NL's were banging out 20+ for differentials last week...gave a big hint to that mess of chop last week.