Whats hi-pro ? But I dont think that overstating margin is that important ? What seems to matter is to understad if margin are high/low compared to past years. Each factory has its own margin given its local market. Others factors can be important: Currently, european "real" crusher (lower cost but lower oil share) seem to have better margin than crusher using solvent to extract oil (higher cost but higher oil share) because meal is really expensive compared to oil.
Hi-pro = high protein soybean meal. It trades at a premium to the lower protein variety because the soybean hulls have been removed. I agree, if the yields are consistent, even if they're wrong, over time it's not that important, especially to a 'paper trader.' I'm somewhat of a stickler for details, though, and I also invest/trade in agricultural processing stocks, so I'd prefer to look at a number and know it's a pretty good average for that geography. Interesting comment about the "real" crush (expeller?) method. There are some small firms that do that here, but it's probably a rounding error compared to the amount of beans that are processed with hexane.
I don't know about Gulke's track record. I don't track his calls. I just like his ( and Hultman's ) commentaries because they sometimes have an eye for the unusual and possible long term mispricings. Each time I try to gauge if their idea has some merit and make it my own by finding a ( better ) way to trade it...
I have no number on it, I just know a 400 KT crushing facility in south west of France. But yes, it seems small compared to hexane.
Anyone see what this spread has done over the past week? Basically back to even. I think there were a bunch of deliveries for Chicago wheat which was really bearish.