Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    It is not that simple:)

    What I have found, is that, so many read so much, yet, when asked a simple question like "define a trend", they are immediately lost and have to think about what to say - worried in case what they say will make them look silly in front of others that they can neither see nor hear!

    If you can not "define a trend" off the tip of your tongue, then how the hell are you going to be able to trade!

    If you buy/sell just because price has dropped/risen, then that might work out a few times, but not consistently, and it is consistency that is required to make money trading.

    BLASH & SHABL do work, along with their cousins BHASH & SLABL, BHRASL & SLRABH, but only when you fully understand TST charting - and we are still only discussing the first T!

    Do I know what the "obvious" is, well, to be honest I do, as many others do also, but that is irrelevant, as, knowing the "obvious" will not guarantee that you will be able to trade effectively consistently, "the obvious" it is a pre-requisite to trading any market - which means you must know it before you even start to think about trading, which, will then require some additional skills to enable you to make those consistent profits on a daily/weekly/monthly basis.

    Maybe you can answer me this question - why has no one "defined a trend" yet?

    If someone does not know something, then they should never be afraid to say it, for, how will they ever learn anything that way!

    J_S
     
    #4191     Oct 3, 2015
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    TST you say, for everyday,
    will show the way, that makes it pay
    those who know, make money grow
    those in awe, will lose not draw

    this "obvious" be, not you or me,
    it is for sure, the start of cure,
    to see it bright, turn on the light,
    when asked a word, be not absurd

    when some do write, it is not shite,
    within the ink, can make you blink,
    but like all stuff, take out the fluff,
    and use ur brain, to make some gain:)

    J_S
     
    #4192     Oct 3, 2015
  3. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Here is a test!

    Pick any stock that is heavily traded on the US exchanges - penny stocks are a fools game so we will ignore them.

    J_S
     
    #4193     Oct 3, 2015
  4. Traderz

    Traderz

    Ok sure How about General Dynamics Corp on the NYSE, stock symbol GD
     
    #4194     Oct 4, 2015
  5. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    TZ, spread too wide for key times, waste of time - pick another with ultra tight spread as we are going to discuss daytrading stock only - no swings/positions.

    J_S

    Screen Shot 10-04-15 at 03.19 PM.PNG

    As for the options..nooooooo wayyyyyyyyy

    Screen Shot 10-04-15 at 03.31 PM.PNG
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2015
    #4195     Oct 4, 2015
  6. Nemesis

    Nemesis

    APA, SNDK - don't know what the spread is though.

    A trend is the tendency for price to continue in the same direction with respect to a particular timescale.

    For the pased 4 months APA has been trending down. For the past 4 days APA has been trending up.The down trend on the monthly scale may or may not continue - there is no certainty.
     
    #4196     Oct 4, 2015
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Both of them are a bit wide at the start (3-7), but tighten up before 10:00 and seem to stay tighter than (3-7), so they look a lot better than GD for daytrading. The option spreads on both are ridiculously wide for most of day, so options a no go for daytrading these two.

    SNDK looks more volatile recently, so would pick that one out of the 2 - would not trade them as spreads way too wide at the open, but for this test will go with SNDK.

    J_S

    Screen Shot 10-04-15 at 08.08 PM.PNG
     
    #4197     Oct 4, 2015
  8. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    It is very easy see where price has been, it is not so easy to know where it might go next!

    To daytrade sndk, additional charts will obviously be required, but it is no harm to look at the big picture first to see where it is in relation to where it has been.

    What is the current trend for sndk daily and "what defines" that trend?

    J_S

    Screen Shot 10-04-15 at 08.18 PM.PNG
     
    #4198     Oct 4, 2015
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Current trend is up

    Overriding trend is down

    Volume


    I'll leave it to the good folks here to work out how to fit the pieces together


    RN
     
    #4199     Oct 4, 2015
  10. destriero

    destriero

    #4200     Oct 4, 2015