Mav, you think opening range vs. avg of OR in a specific market center has some predictive value on likelihood of a mean reverting vs. trending day? ex. last 5 opening ranges of NY (8-9am EST) averaged 40 pips, today is 80 pips. price approaches open low , would you fade it and buy or opposite? Intuitively,if the opposite is true where OR is 10 pips with an average of 40 pips, I probably would NOT fade the open range for I don't like fading quiet markets. Just don't know if the opposite is true as described above. BTw, tried to pm you 2 days ago-full box.
Gabby, I think the predictive behavior for OR with FX is rather low. Now if you add some filters and qualify your OR you might make it more robust. For example, if the OR is "wide" on a news day vs wide OR with no news or data out. Or perhaps if OR is wide during the asian session and wide during London, then fade US session. I mean there are endless combinations. Where I would focus my research is by diving the 24 hour market into 3 periods and look for patterns where if two of the periods are doing X, then period 3 is most likely to do Y. Remember currencies can't go to zero or to the moon. They are bounded markets. So by definition they are highly fadeable. But in any 24 hour period the volatility can be highly variable. In my opinion, I don't think volatility can sustain itself across all 3 sessions. So if two sessions are really quiet, look for a move on the 3rd. If two are very volatile, look for a fade on the 3rd. This is just off the top of my head analysis here. But that is how I would go about it. I'll try to lighten up my inbox.
Thanks for the ideas- maybe something like don't start any fades unless previous x bars had a 3 sigma move followed by some period of stability afterwards.. ..interesting.
Consider your pair and timeframe of choice and run a simulation like in this blog. Do you have any chances of making money? The simulation with proper spread and slippage accounted for should answer the question. The answer for forex is that you can only profit longer-term because the spread takes a bite of your profits if you trade frequently.
Thanks for the link Ron, I wonder what returns would be for the same random system if system buys on bid/sells on ask instead of taking the price . It might result is less executions but might improve distribution somewhat. Could loss be further lessened thru the use on an ECN broker vs. old style fx shops?
market can be volatile any time but at High impact news release and over lapping time had fast market. Metal as gold , silver are also volatile pair. oil trading is also very fast we can find fast profit or loss here due to the volatility.