Sure, just because it's happened before, doesn't guarantee it MUST happen, it's just a probability (even though it's high odds, given the historical significance is 100% thus far). I know of a trader who swears by Elliott Wave and claims that a "5 wave pattern" has completed on the monthly chart since the 2013 high of slightly over $112, which included a massive "impulse" wave 3 down from around $106 to $43. IF that is true, then a corrective abc pattern should produce a rally back to technical resistance around $60-$62. I'm not sure if I buy that either, as I'm not too well versed in all the waves/cycles/sub-cycles, however when you look at charts of CVX and XOM at six year lows, it's quite tempting to play oil for a trade off the "lows" at this point.
DWTI at $121+ After hours....I sold out at $108, ouch!!!! Didn't think it would rally as hard as it did but oil took a huge fall today...
$USO 11985 bullish reversal buying oct 16/18 call spread funded by selling oct 13 puts for 28 cents debit.
JUMPING AGAIN TODAY !!!!! UP NEARLY 5% to $113++ a share!!! LOOKING TO SELL out soon, I think oil could bounce a few percent....
So if oil plunges to $20 in "doomsday scenario" that means what ever doomsday scenario they speak of would mean an easy bear market in all worldwide indexes and a recession....that to me means an easy 30%+ off US indexes if any "doomsday scenario" were to take place.... Oil could plunge to $20 in doomsday scenario, Goldman Sachs says Oil could plunge as low as $20 a barrel amid a glut of production around the world, Goldman Sachs analysts said Friday in a new report. That's a level not seen in more than a decade. "Although oil prices have revisited the lows of last winter, this time both financial and fundamental metrics are much weaker," Goldman said in the report. "Forward demand expectations are lower as the emerging market economic outlook continues to deteriorate." To be sure, Goldman is not projecting a drop to $20 — a worst-case it said would be fleeting if it's reached. Goldman's official projection for 2016 WTI prices is $45, down from a previous forecast of $57. Goldman's 2017 forecast stayed at $60. Still, the suggestion that oil could fall to $20 in a doomsday scenario jolted the energy markets as investors come to grips with the depth of the commodity's price decline. Following the report's publication, Brent crude fell 2% on Friday morning to $47.76 at 8 a.m., while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2% to $44.83. Oil prices have dropped in half over the last 12 months as the market adjusts to a global surplus and an economic slowdown in China. The emergence of new sources of oil from the U.S., where producers are tapping shale reserves, has fueled the collapse. Market observers have been waiting to see whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will lower production or whether other countries with high oil output will lower production to preserve pricing. Drillers in the U.S. have been facing hardships for months, with many toppling into insolvency. "While it is still uncertain about where, when and how the full supply adjustment will take place, we can say with far greater confidence that oil supply growth in North America, will likely slow down if not reverse given recent drilling and investment patterns," Goldman said. But the analysts said that the U.S. shale boom has generated a "backlog of drilled but uncompleted shale wells," a so-called "fracklog" that puts downward pressure on profit margins.