s&p 500 Death Cross signal, reliable or not?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sp2020, Sep 2, 2015.

  1. sp2020

    sp2020

    Hope I can hear from traders who are experienced through these signals, are they reliable or not? From what I read so far, it is not. Thank for any input.
     
  2. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Every major correction will have a bear cross, but so will every decent pullback.

    Notice how many bear crosses where tremendous buying opportunities.

    It's up to you to determine if the bear cross is real or fake.
     
  3. ...Well, it's only crystal clear 20/20 in hindsight o_O
    That's the beauty of the market -- it's part art. part science. Mazal tov
     
  4. Sotnis

    Sotnis

    $SPY My crystal ball has the spy gapping up and then falling into a bearish engulfing pattern with the big boys selling into the rally.
     
    Zestilio likes this.
  5. londonkid

    londonkid

    If it is being openly talked about by the herd on forums then it is very unlikely to be 'reliable'.
     
  6. jsp326

    jsp326

    As always, data/research > opinions. This pretty well sums it up:

    http://quantifiableedges.com/blog/

    "So while not a reliable timing device, it is notable that the market has failed to generate long-term profits under the Death Cross. Traders that are concerned with preserving capital could utilize Death Crosses to possibly avoid big portions of nasty bear markets."
     
  7. jsp326

    jsp326

    True, except for the "but so will every decent pullback" part. Since 2012, the best pullbacks have simply been the price touching the 100 to 200 Day MA areas. This was also true for most of the 2004-2007 bull markets and the late 1990s. The death cross is no holy grail, but it should make one cautious. The last cross-under was in 2011. They don't happen very often.
     
    Bad Bond likes this.
  8. Bad Bond

    Bad Bond

    I'm going with my gut on this one. And have to agree with Jsp326. Proceed with caution.