Ag trade ideas

i think it's better to sell some spread, than to try buying @ bottom

 

Long Mar/Short May White sugar @-4.2. Was only able to get half of it.

 

I am a perfect countersignal on Raw Sugar...I hope that SB Oct/May doesn't gap too much tomorrow...I didn't manage to get out.

 

Out @ -0.95

 

kinda interesting statistic on lumber:

 

@Vyki

A short statistical point : correlation shouldnt be done between non stationary series (i.e. prices).
If you do so, you will have a lot of false positive (high correlation between random series).
This error is made by a lot of people including Analysts at Société Générale.

=> Be careful because even 80 % could be random

But you can calculate correlation between returns... And you will find much lower correlation.

 

Vyki, I am this you on the long Dec/Short Mar Minny wheat @ -17.5.

 

bought he v-z. but It's kinda high comparing with other years

 

Thanks a lot for this call. Just followed you @ 4250. I guess I caught the low of the day...

 

yep, but keep in mind it's kinda high and one clever guy thinks spread can still visit 3.500