Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ituglobal, Jan 11, 2014.

  1. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 22 - 26, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    EURUSD first consolidated last week; then it broke upwards, closing above the support line at 1.1300. The bias is still bullish and price could test the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. Failure to do this could lead to a drop in the price, and therefore, the condition of USD would be the greatest determinant of the movement of EURUSD for the rest of this month. Only a significant weakness in USD may help EURUSD maintain its current bullish bias.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This pair was able to break below the resistance level at 0.9250 (which bears could not breach in the first two weeks of June 2015). Since then, price has moved below another resistance level at 0.9200. The support level at 0.9150 was tested last week and it could be tested again, especially with more selling pressure in the market. That support level could even be breached to the downside.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    GBP is really strong, and the evidence can be seen on most GBP pairs. Cable moved upwards by 350 pips last week, and it has moved upwards by 650 pips this month. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is currently being besieged and it might end up being slashed by bulls. Another possible target is the distribution territory at 1.5950. However, Cable must now be approached with caution because it is possible that the pair would become weak before the end of this week or this month.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This market first moved sideways last week. On June 17, there was a false bullish breakout, which made the market go upwards by 100 pips before bears came in to force it lower. The market is now close to the demand level at 122.50, which may be breached to the downside anytime. It should be borne in mind that this market is expected to trend lower and lower in the month of July 2015: hence any rallies in the short-term could well bring short-selling opportunities.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This cross did not make any large movement last week, though the outlook remains bullish. The bullish outlook itself is not very strong. So, any movement below the demand zone at 138.00 would mean the end of the bullish outlook, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This is a condition that would signify the bearish power on the cross.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “My opinion is that traders who have long been around and keep learning, will establish themselves automatically.”– Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #81     Jun 20, 2015
  2. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 29 – July 3, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Because of the events in the Eurozone, EUR pairs might open with gaps this week and in case the gaps happen, they would harbinger great volatility in the markets for the rest of the week. EURUSD trended downwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bearish and a bearish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. The possible breakout would happen when the support line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside as price goes further downwards to other support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would render this expectation invalid.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This pair trended upwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bullish and a bullish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. This week, the sanguine bulls would try to keep price moving upwards, and so, the possible breakout would happen when the resistance level at 0.9400 is broken to the upside as price goes further upwards to other resistance levels at 0.9450 and 0.9500. On the other hand, a movement below the resistance line at 0.9200 would render this stated possibility illogical.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Cable came down by roughly 200 pips last week – a threat to the extant bullish bias. Price then moved in an equilibrium phase till the close of the market on Friday, June 26, 2015. There is now a very high probability that this market (and most other GBP pairs) would become seriously weak, starting from this week and in the first half of July 2015. The current bullish bias would be valid only as long as price is above the accumulation territory at 1.5650.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    This trading instrument is currently consolidating. Price is generally moving/oscillating between the supply level at 124.50 and the demand level at 122.50. It would normally be expected that price would eventually break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level, paving way for a sustained trending move. A strong southward movement is highly possible in the month of July 2015.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Just like EURUSD, this cross first trended downwards last week before moving sideways. Whatever happens to Euro (such as gaps, strong movement), would have similar impact on this cross. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a strong bearish trend is probable in July.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “When you trade from a carefree state of mind, everything about your trading changes.Remember, that the primary skill that we are talking about here is simply trading without fear. This is a trading skill. It is the primary trading skill that you will have to acquire to create consistency – to trade without fear.”– Mark Douglas

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #82     Jun 27, 2015
  3. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 6 - 10, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Current events in the Eurozone will continue to shape the movement of EURUSD and other EUR pairs this week. Last week, price opened with a gap-down of about 200 pips before an upward bounce of over 300 pips occurred on Monday. On Tuesday, price began to go south and tested the support line at 1.1050 on Wednesday. After that, price consolidated till the end of the week. This week, EURUSD and other EUR pairs could open with gaps, and of course, the gaps would be followed by strong movements in case they occur. The outlook on EURUS D is bearish: unless the resistance line at 1.1250 is overcome, further southward movement is expected.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This currency trading instrument traded downwards on Monday, reaching the support level at 0.9250. Form that level, price went north by 250 pips, testing the resistance level at 0.9500. Once the resistance level was tested, a bearish correction took price lower by another 100 pips. Last week, price closed around the support level a 0.9400, but it is likely that price would rally again. The bias is bullish as long as the support level at 0.9250 is not breached to the downside.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Following the recent sideways movement, Cable broke out to the downside, going below the distribution territory at 1.5600. The accumulation territory at 1.5500 is an easy target for bears, for there is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market right now. Should price go further southward, another accumulation territory at 1.5400 would be attained. However, this does not rule out the possibility of rally attempts.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    There is not yet any significant movement on USDJPY, as price only oscillates between the supply level at 124.00 and the demand level at 122.00. The present market condition is thus great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Eventually price would either break out above the supply level at 124.00 or below the demand level at 122.00, after which there would be a significant movement. It should be noted that the most probable direction for July 2015 is bearish. This is also true of most other JPY pairs.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    At the open of the market last week, this cross experienced a gap-down of about 400 pips as it slammed into the demand level at 134.00. Immediately after this, price rose sharply by over 400 pips, testing the supply zone at 138.00. Price then got caught in an equilibrium phase for the rest of the week. This week, the conditions of the Eurozone will also determine what happens on this cross, because whatever happens to EUR/USD will cause almost identical movement on this cross. A southward movement is most likely.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Give the market time to develop once you have defined your stops and profit targets. You cannot control the market anyway. It is certainly no coincidence that we have had reports from many traders telling us that they have not only achieved better results with simple no-frills trading, but have also felt better.”– Marko Graenitz


    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #83     Jul 4, 2015
  4. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 13 - 17, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This pair trended downwards in the first few days of last week, challenging the support line at 1.0950. From that support line, price went upwards by 250 pips, reaching the resistance line at 1.1200. The upward movement has been a threat to the existing bearish outlook and a movement above the resistance line at 1.1250 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This week, further weakness in USD may enable this pair to trend further upwards.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Though the bias on USD/CHF is bullish, bulls were unable to take price above the resistance level at 0.9500. That resistance level was tested several times but it could not be broken to the upside, which made the market experience some bearish correction. Price closed below the resistance level at 0.9400 and further bearish correction could invalidate the extant bullish bias. Things would now be difficult for bulls because it is expected that USD would be weak this week, plus CHF may gain a lot of stamina by the end of this month.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    There is now trending movement on Cable, which dived by 250 pips last week. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.5350, and then rallied by over 160 pips, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5500. It is clear that a measure of volatility is now in this market, for it was in an equilibrium phase a few weeks ago. Certain other majors were also in equilibrium phases in some past weeks/months. This week, Cable might continue to make northward attempts, in case bears fail to push price below the accumulation territory at 1.5450.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    This trading instrument, which once vacillated between the demand level at 122.00 and the supply level at 124.50, trended strongly last week. Price went seriously south, testing the demand level at 120.50, and after that, price rose by over 230 pips, closing above the demand level at 122.50. The bias could have gone bearish, but the subsequent rise in price has neutralized that. Further northward journey may be deceptive here, for there is still a high possibility that this trading instrument would become weak again this week or before the end of this month. JPY may become very strong by the end of the month and this would send most JPY pairs tumbling.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Last week, EUR/JPY was unable to go below the demand zone at 133.50, in spite of commendable effort of bears. Price went out of balance around that demand zone and it rallied significantly by 350 pips, closing around the supply zone at 137.00. This strong rally has put the recent bearish bias in jeopardy – a further northward movement of 100 - 150 pips would simply result in a confirmed bullish bias. As a result of the ongoing events in the Eurozone, this cross and other JPY pairs might open with gaps this week (and of course with other EUR pairs).


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Money is made as a by-product of following a sound trading plan.” – Louise Bedford

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #84     Jul 11, 2015
  5. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 20 - 24, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    EURUSD dropped by 280 pips last week, going below the resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900. The resistance line at 1.0900 (and of course the resistance line at 1.0900) was an adamant obstacle to bears’ interest. Now that the obstacle has been overcome, the next targets for the bears are the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The aforementioned resistance lines should server as obstacles to bullish attempts this week, for their breach would mean a threat to the current bearish outlook.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This pair went north by over 200 pips last week, going above the support levels at 0.9500, 0.9550 and 0.9600. The support level at 0.9500 (which was formerly a resistance level) really proved obstinate for the bulls because it opposed bullish effort for over 2 weeks while the bulls kept on besieging it. Once the opposition was overcome, price was able to rally smoothly. Since price has closed above the support level at 0.9600, it is possible that the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700 will be aimed at. This bullish bias might go on till the end of the month, but things could change in the wake of a strong stamina in CHF, which is expected by the end of the month.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Cable rose significantly last week, battering the distribution wall at 1.5650. Bears have been fighting back at that distribution wall, making it hitherto impossible for bulls to breach it. Nevertheless, the bulls have continued to struggle for supremacy, and that is the reason behind the current consolidation in the market. Price shall go out of balance this week, and it is most probable that the bulls would overcome.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Since testing the demand level at 120.50, this currency trading instrument has gone upwards by 350 pips. The persistent bullish movement has put an end to the recent neutral outlook in the market – for the outlook is now bullish. However, price needs to go towards the supply level at 124.50 and break upwards through it; otherwise there could be a massive bearish correction this week or next week.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This cross would continue to go south as EURUSD keeps going south. The only hope of a meaningful rally here is an event in which the Euro becomes very strong; otherwise price would continue to drop further and further (whether speedily and gradually). This bearish force is formidable here, coupled with the expectation of a massive gain in the Yen itself around the end of this month.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that you really don’t need lots of skills; you just need a winning attitude.” – Mark Douglas

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #85     Jul 18, 2015
  6. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 27 - 31, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Although the dominant bias is bearish, this pair made some commendable bullish attempts last week. Price moved upwards by almost 200 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1000. That resistance line is an important price area, since it must be broken to the upside for the current bullish effort to continue. Should that occur, a subsequent break of the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 would result in a clean bullish bias. On the other hand, any failure of price to break the resistance line at 1.1000 to the upside could result in a serious bearish movement.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullish stance in spite of the fact that EURUSD was also making bullish effort. This is one of rare occasions in which EURUSD and USDCHF would be going in the same direction in the short-term. However, things will soon go out of balance and the pairs would go their separate ways. USDCHF might go further upwards, but this would be challenged by the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700. In fact, it is highly probable that CHF may gain serious stamina before the end of this month (this would also affect other CHF pairs), and thus cause USDCHF to fall smoothly.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This mercurial currency trading instrument experienced a southwards movement last week. There is a bearish signal in the market: which would be valid as long as the distribution territories at 1.5650 and 1.5700 are not breached to the upside. In case those distribution territories are overcome, the current bearish signal would be rendered illogical.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This market traded sideways last week, though the bullish trend on it is not yet over. Should the market move sideways again throughout this week, it would enter a neutral territory. Nevertheless, price could soon go out of balance, resulting in a serious trending move. Yen can become very strong before the end of this month – causing other JPY pairs to tumble – and it can also cause USDJPY to go bearish.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    From the demand zone at 134.50, this cross moved upwards by over 150 pips, slamming into the supply zone at 136.00. This has caused a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but it is a confirmation pattern that might be short-lived, since Yen can become very strong before the end of the month, causing bears to dominant the market.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “… No system or set of trades is either winning or losing, they are only so with respect to the position sizing (or money management) that was applied… We have every tool we can long for to control risk while adding to our winners.” - Dirk Vandycke

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #86     Jul 25, 2015
  7. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 3 - 7, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    This pair experienced a great deal of volatility last week. Price went up on Monday, and then dropped seriously from Tuesday to Thursday. On Friday, price spiked upwards and immediately following that, got corrected to the downside. The high volatility and short-term swings in the market have cancelled any directional bias on the market, not because of any equilibrium conditions, but because neither bulls nor bears are able to dominate protractedly in spite of the fact that momentum is currently high. This pair would be characterized by high momentum this month, and it would be difficult for it to rally protractedly as long as USD is strong.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Despite the fact that bearish attempts caused the support levels at 0.9550 to be tested a few times last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullishness. Since the support level at 0.9550 has become a strong barrier to bearish effort, it would be safe to assume that the bullish outlook on the pair will remain valid as long as price is able to stay above that support level. The resistance level at 0.9700 is also a big challenge to bulls, for price could not break above it last week in spite of sincere effort by the bulls. A break above that resistance level would thus result in a smooth continuation of the extant bullish trend. The outlook would go bearish as soon as the support level at 0.9550 is breached to the downside.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    Cable has not been able to go below the accumulation territory at 1.5450 or go above the distribution territory at 1.5650 for weeks; therefore, the accumulation territory at 1.5450 and the distribution territory at 1.5650 could serve as boundaries for short-term swing trades. In this week or next, price could move out of these boundaries, thereby giving way to a serious directional movement. In this month, GBP (and other GBP pairs) would most probably be weak in most cases, though there could be occasional bullish attempts on the way.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    This currency trading instrument has been moving sideways since the middle of July 2015. A break above the supply level at 124.50 could result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and a break below the demand level 123.00 could also result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This month, it is highly possible that Yen would gain lots of strength, thus causing JPY pairs to tumble. The strength in the Yen may start before the end of this week, and therefore, it is possible that USDJPY will go below the supply levels at 123.00 and 122.00 this week or next week.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Although there is a measure of strength in the EURJPY cross, the situation looks delicate. The supply zone at 137.50 could challenge further rally in the market, and the possibility of a bearish movement starting anytime is high because the outlook on JPY pairs for this month of August is bearish.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Now I embrace the uncertainty and design my processes so as to have the potential to thrive in the uncertainty. I want to accept winners and cut losses short in an uncertain world, and I want to do it repeatedly without desire to know the future.”– Markham Gross

    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #87     Aug 1, 2015
  8. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 10 - 14, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    EURUSD is now a volatile pair, characterized by serious struggles between bear and bull in the context of a downtrend. The support line at 1.0850 was tested last week, but price could not break it to the downside. For the downtrend trend to continue this week, that support line should the broken to the downside as price targets another support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. This bearish outlook would make sense as long as the resistance line at 1.1050 is not broken to the upside.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This is one of the few currency pairs among the majors which traded in one direction throughout last week. From the support level at 0.9650, price moved upwards by 200 pips, closing around the resistance level at 0.9850. The bias is bullish: the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950 could be tried this week. Therefore, it is expected that this currency pair would be edging it way upwards as long as USD does not experience any significant weakness.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    On GBPUSD, there was a southward breakout (out of the volatile equilibrium phase that was seen last week). Within the last two trading days of the last week, the southwards breakout made the price to test the accumulation territory at 1.5450. The price even went briefly below that accumulation territory before bouncing upwards. This week, further southward attempts may be witnessed because the outlook for GBP (and other GBP pairs) is bearish. And this is true of this month.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This currency trading instrument traded upwards last week, reaching the supply level at 125.00. Nevertheless, further upwards movement was rejected at that level, making price to get corrected to the downside. It should be noted that, prior to the current price action, USDJPY moved sideways for a few weeks, and when there was a breakout to the upside, it was only a movement of 100 pips. The bearish correction that happened on Friday has made the prior bullish breakout look like a false one. This means that, while further bullish attempts are not impossible, the most probable direction for the market this week is southward.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    On EURJPY cross there was no clear victory between bulls and bears, Last week, desperate bullish effort was being frustrated at the supply zone at 136.50. This shows that bears are fighting hard to check bulls’ ambitions. A test of the demand zone at 135.00 would thus result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, thereby enabling more bearish journey. It is expected that Yen would be strong this week or this month, which should cause most JPY pairs, including EURJPY to become strongly bearish.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Real professional traders have a competitive drive and appreciate the intellectual challenge that the markets pose to them again and again.”– Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger



    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #88     Aug 8, 2015
  9. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 17 - 21, 2015)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This pair rose by 150 pips last week, rising from the support line at 1.0950 and reaching the resistance line at 1.1200. Price has really met a challenge at the resistance line at 1.1200, but it would need to go above the resistance line so that the bullish journey can continue. There are support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000: the bullish outlook would make sense as long as the support lines are not breached to the downside.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    In recent times, both USDCHF and EURUSD are making bullish efforts. This is unusual because the pairs ought to go in separate ways (and they would soon do so). After testing the resistance level at 0.9900, USDCHF got corrected by 200 pips, testing the support level at 0.9700. However, this does not render the recent bullish bias invalid. The pair is now making some effort to go upwards and this week would see the result of that effort. The recent bullish bias could only be rendered useless in case the support level 0.9650 is breached to the downside.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    Cable remains highly volatile; characterized by large upswings and downswings in the market. There is no clear directional bias on the market because bulls and bears enjoy only transitory victories. There is an accumulation territory at 1.5450 and there is a distribution territory at 1.5650, which is an adamant distribution territory indeed because it has rejected all bullish effort for the past several weeks. Since the expectation for GBP is bearish for this month, things would become really bearish when the accumulation territory at 1.5450 is broken to the downside. On the other hand, a break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 would mean the bearish expectation may not materialize this month.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Neutral

    Based on the current price action, it can be said that USDJPY has hitherto defied gravity. Occasional bearish corrections are quickly followed by rally attempts – and all these are not even significant. This week, it would be intriguing to watch what would happen to this currency trading instrument. A movement below the demand level at 123.50 would result in a ‘sell’ signal while a movement above the supply level at 125.50 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.



    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This cross rallied massively last week, closing at 138.11 on Friday, August 14, 2015 (just above the demand zone at 138.00). While the cross may journey further northwards this week, that would not rule out the possibility of a bearish plunge. The cross would be going upwards only as long as EUR is stronger than JPY.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “After playing in front of large football crowds and having the spotlight on me, I really enjoy having my own destiny in my hands now. I miss being as physically fit as I used to be, and the fun times with the other players, but I also like the freedom of trading. As a professional sportsman you have no freedom. But in my second career I have all the freedom I need, and that is through trading.” – Lee Stanford (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)



    Copyright: Tallinex.com
     
    #89     Aug 16, 2015
  10. vic84

    vic84

    GBPUSD has made a move up after a small negative move, and at present it seems that pair is trading positive.
     
    #90     Aug 21, 2015