Mathematics of Betting: Odds vs Probability vs RRR

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by OddTrader, Dec 25, 2014.

  1. piezoe

    piezoe

    Soros's first fund was started while an employee of Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, which I think his still his clearing firm today and a principle custodian of his family fund. He started it with $100,000 of the Firm's money and set up a model portfolio. Based on the performance of that model portfolio, he started another fund called the "First Eagle Fund" around 1968. In 1969 he started another fund called the "Double Eagle Fund" with 4 million capital. I think this was his first fund that he managed that could go both long and short and use leverage. An early "hedge fund" if you like. These early funds were quite successful. The Eagle funds attracted outside investors and grew in size. Soros left Bleichroeder in 1973 and set up his own hedge fund.

    Soros has always been a person with high ethical standards. Soros has said that one of the factors in deciding to leave Bleichroeder was that the firm was recommending to clients stocks that they were also buying for their own accounts and this created a conflict of interest. These same conflicts of interest are still common place on Wall Street today. Soros solved the problem by leaving and starting his own hedge fund. He would then not be working for a Firm recommending buying or selling individual stocks in potential conflict with the fund he was managing.

    He called his fund the "Soros fund" and this later became the "Quantum Fund". Some of the investors who were in the Double Eagle Fund a Bleichroeder elected to go with Soros. That enabled him to start his new fund with about 12 million.. He has said that very little of this money was his own. He and Jim Rogers, who he had known as an analyst at Bleichroeder, ran the early Soros Fund, essentially by themselves. Around 1978 the name was changed to Quantum Fund and Rogers left a few years later over disagreement about the need to hire additional help in managing the fund. In 1981 the Fund had a losing year , -22%, and I think that was the only losing year in the funds history. Even in 1987 when they had a very bad year, by Quantum fund standards, with major losses, the fund returned 14%.

    All told, Soros' record of average annual return from the hedge funds he managed, starting with the Double Eagle Fund, was 35% by 1999. One thousand invested in 1969 would have grown, by 1999, to over 2.1 million had dividends been reinvested. At some point Soros hired Stanley Druckenmiller to manage the fund, but not before he and Jim Rogers, in the earlier years, had achieved a phenomenal ROI record.

    Eventually the fund became so large that as Soros puts it, it out outgrew its environment. There was no choice but to expand into other areas of investment. In 1995 Soros said that the fund could not possibly repeat the performance of the fund's first quarter century. If it did, it would end up owning all the shares in the world. He has said that he would be happy with a performance half as good in the next quarter century.

    The probability of this record being achieved by luck alone, while not zero, is tiny. (See Malkiel's "A Random Walk down Wall Street", and Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness.) Soros' record thoroughly discredits Malkiel's thesis. Soros has said either he is wrong or the efficient markets hypothesis is wrong. I think I know which is wrong!

    Have a happy Fourth of July.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2015
    #21     Jul 3, 2015
  2. piezoe

    piezoe

    In an impolite, and uncalled for response to Loyek:
    What is it with you zdreg? You obviously did not attend charm school. Or if you did, you were jerking off in the back of the classroom, when you should have been listening.

    Soros' fund, I believe, is based off shore. I'm certain he will pay all the taxes he is legally responsible for paying. If you don't like the present laws, why don't you run for the House or Senate (But go to charm school first, or you surely won't be elected!) and work on changing U.S, Tax Law . I read somewhere Soros may be liable for another few billion in taxes. If he owes them, rest assured, he will pay them!

    I personally would be happy if the U.S. would exempt him from all U.S. taxes, because he is the world's most important and most generous philanthropist when it comes to supporting education and freedom of choice around the world.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2015
    #22     Jul 3, 2015
  3. loyek590

    loyek590

    she pays taxes on dividends, but pratically nothin in cap gains. And over 20 years that really adds up. There will finally be a day of reckoning and the IRS will get their cut.
    ah, that's the story of my life. I wanted to buy some Berkshire Hathaway, but it was trading at about $320 per share, and I thought it had gotten a little ahead of itself.

    The point is out of 5,000 choices how can my mother pick the right one? If she had picked Soros or Warren I'm sure she would be quite happy.
     
    #23     Jul 3, 2015
  4. loyek590

    loyek590

    it's like saying, if in 1987 you had just bought 100 shares of the right stock you would be rich today!

    If someone looked at my trading record they would think I was quite skillful, but they don't know about my death trades. A death trade is when you put it all on the line. Fine for a young man like me, but not appropriate for my mother. And when it's all said and done, unless you are really lucky, you end up about the same as the index.
     
    #24     Jul 3, 2015
  5. I hope I didn't come across suggesting that he did. But there is always an element of luck, good or bad, where uncertainty is concerned. He took positions based on views and then he rode then when they cooperated and got out relatively quickly when they didn't. How many times has he reversed himself on a previously held view when the market would not oblige him? He's a market opportunist and a fine one at that. I hold him in high regard.
     
    #25     Jul 3, 2015
  6. loyek590

    loyek590

    well isn't that always the way. When someone becomes an outlier they become a subject of conversation. The mathmaticians tell us it is well within the laws of probability, But the believers tell us, "Oh no, this couldn't possibly be a coincidence."
     
    #26     Jul 3, 2015
  7. zdreg

    zdreg

    ___
    it was a complement that she minimizes her taxes. you are too far from from normality to recognize it. your writings are of a delusional person. get professional
    psychiatric help for your twisted mind. i will take the opportunity to expose your communist leanings and your twisted logic which exists in nearly everyone of your posts.
    as to soros he has been kicked out and banned from at least one country for interfering in the internal affairs of that country. it is no coincidence that you lionize soros and he is detested by the right.

    you have one talent which shines though in your posts. it is to speak truths in such way as to mislead the reader. i recommend to other readers to read your posts very carefully because they contain a hidden agenda which is to undermine capitalism.

    I understand your anger. if you can't win on the facts insult the other person. you are in over your head.
    lots of luck.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2015
    #27     Jul 3, 2015
    samuel11 likes this.
  8. Belarus? Seriously? I didn't know you were so attached to the former Soviet Bloc country and its history of honesty in government. If you read more than only hit pieces on your favorite nemesis, then maybe your view would be more balanced:

    https://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/belarus-turns-on-soros/100891.article

    Soros has given away more than $7 Billion of his money to very worthwhile causes:

    http://www.georgesoros.com/faqs/entry/georgesorosphilanthropyisunprecedented/

    And what have you done lately, comrade?
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2015
    #28     Jul 4, 2015
    piezoe likes this.
  9. piezoe

    piezoe

    Perhaps you meant to "complement" [sic] both Soros and Loyek's mother. ;)
     
    #29     Jul 4, 2015
  10. Sergio77

    Sergio77

    Soros is statistical outlier. No one can prove that he was skilfull or lucky. Just an outlier.
     
    #30     Jul 12, 2015