2014: The Battle for Survival

Discussion in 'Journals' started by neke, Jan 5, 2014.

  1. Wow, this journal went downhill fast. With the weekly updates, there was a buzz and excitement about the ups and downs, now with the monthly updates, lot of people lost patience and interest.
     
    #231     Jun 2, 2015
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Wow, you never say anything useful, except the blind cheering.

    Anyhow, since I like to compare apples to apples, Neke's performance in the last 6 months is equivalent to a small account trader trading a 10K account and making 6 ES points PER MONTH (inc. com.). That is $250 or 2.5% monthly.
     
    #232     Jun 5, 2015
  3. neke

    neke

    I like it that way. Check out those weeks with lots of participation - down maybe 20-50% for the week. I must be doing something right now!
     
    #233     Jun 5, 2015
    Jimmy Ray likes this.
  4. neke

    neke

    Period Update for June (5/31/2015 - 7/4/2015) (5 weeks)

    Frustrating month, up 1.6K (0.5%).

    Made good gains first couple of weeks, and was getting ready to celebrate a break-out. It was not to be. Lost the gains in the next several weeks. The range trading continues. I have attached my P/L cumulative since Jan 2013. It's proving harder than expected to resume the uptrend. On the positive side, the hitherto worst performing strategy this year (OPN-FCR) has reversed course and delivered good gains the past couple of months. Negative side, that is more than compensated by the plunge in the best-performing strategy till April (OPN-OPM). The once best-performing stock strategy also took a battering this month.

    Code:
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    
    Opening Balance:                	331,669
    Net gain for period 		          1,647
    Cash Withdrawal				 (7,500)
    ------------------------------------------------
    Net Balance:                   		325,816
    
    
    For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 7/4/2015)
    
    Opening Balance:                       256,099
    Net gain   	    	                97,717 (Up 38%)
    Cash Withdrawal			       (28,000)
    ------------------------------------------------
    Net Balance			       325,816
    ----------------------
    
    TRADES
    
    TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L
    
    STOCK	2015-06-01-11-13-49	850.2
    OPTION	2015-06-01-13-45-02	8787.6
    OPTION	2015-06-02-11-15-09	16568.8
    STOCK	2015-06-02-15-54-20	7765.4
    STOCK	2015-06-02-15-55-18	-2816.4
    STOCK	2015-06-03-12-12-19	3482
    STOCK	2015-06-03-09-34-32	-1003.7
    OPTION	2015-06-03-09-38-52	-6831.9
    STOCK	2015-06-03-15-49-30	-3636.1
    STOCK	2015-06-03-15-55-20	478.4
    OPTION	2015-06-03-15-29-49	4950.5
    STOCK	2015-06-04-14-38-38	3009.1
    STOCK	2015-06-04-15-17-35	-2981.1
    OPTION	2015-06-04-15-15-44	-11375.7
    OPTION	2015-06-04-13-34-43	32112.8
    STOCK	2015-06-04-15-16-24	-4937.1
    STOCK	2015-06-05-15-49-13	-1454.5
    OPTION	2015-06-08-11-22-37	5453.8
    OPTION	2015-06-09-14-24-59	22934.5
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-49-11	734.8
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-55-12	-1299.4
    STOCK	2015-06-08-15-55-11	-4271.5
    OPTION	2015-06-08-15-31-01	-4719.1
    OPTION	2015-06-09-15-56-06	3741.9
    STOCK	2015-06-09-15-55-18	-5532.1
    STOCK	2015-06-09-15-55-20	-613.5
    OPTION	2015-06-15-10-32-42	-492.4
    OPTION	2015-06-15-14-28-14	-4841.4
    STOCK	2015-06-16-15-55-09	-10270.5
    OPTION	2015-06-16-09-31-43	63.1
    OPTION	2015-06-16-15-34-22	10308.9
    OPTION	2015-06-17-13-43-25	-6522.6
    OPTION	2015-06-17-14-00-28	-5285.5
    STOCK	2015-06-17-16-24-58	401.4
    STOCK	2015-06-17-17-09-40	1296.4
    STOCK	2015-06-18-11-14-36	2228.9
    STOCK	2015-06-18-13-43-34	1978.6
    OPTION	2015-06-18-15-20-26	-4634.6
    STOCK	2015-06-18-15-55-16	-392.4
    STOCK	2015-06-19-12-08-13	-6917.3
    OPTION	2015-06-19-10-13-30	-13454.3
    STOCK	2015-06-22-10-56-52	2475.7
    STOCK	2015-06-22-11-03-09	477.2
    OPTION	2015-06-22-12-08-55	-2043
    STOCK	2015-06-23-10-05-14	522.9
    STOCK	2015-06-23-15-01-04	-13623.6
    STOCK	2015-06-24-12-09-58	3025.1
    OPTION	2015-06-24-15-43-55	-1715.5
    STOCK	2015-06-24-15-49-15	20.3
    OPTION	2015-06-24-15-20-07	-8156.5
    STOCK	2015-06-25-12-08-34	996.8
    STOCK	2015-06-26-10-41-21	8952.7
    OPTION	2015-06-26-10-37-12	8108.1
    STOCK	2015-06-26-10-33-30	4150.4
    OPTION	2015-06-26-15-10-23	5879.1
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-15-36	-611.8
    OPTION	2015-06-26-15-42-32	-29869.5
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-16-33	-633.2
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-45-00	-147.3
    STOCK	2015-06-26-15-45-00	-1810.6
    STOCK	2015-06-29-16-04-12	6334.9
    STOCK	2015-06-30-15-49-24	-10946.1
    STOCK	2015-06-30-15-49-42	-9585.5
    OPTION	2015-06-30-15-14-41	7796
    STOCK	2015-07-01-13-59-24	25079.3
    STOCK	2015-07-01-15-55-17	-4867.1
    OPTION	2015-07-02-09-53-28	-11152.9
    STOCK	2015-07-02-16-09-34	113.5
    
    
    
    ejourncumm.png ejournmthly.png
     
    #234     Jul 4, 2015
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I can't thank you enough for your honesty. It is very rare and very informative... It might seem my posts criticize you a lot, but I try to do it with an intention of helping you with my analyses. Sometimes it is nice to have a second look by an independent observer. That being said, here is an interesting observation about your longer term P/L trends:

    Looks like you have had long periods (about 4-6 months) of not making any money, then the next 2-3 months you made a decent gain just to go back to the next 5-6 months of no profits.

    Since 2013, I counted 4 periods of drought, and 3 periods of profit burst, the last 2 of them were significant.* Now your sample size of 2.5 years might be too small to draw any conclusions, nevertheless it is interesting. The last 7 months saw increased volatility, but overall still flat performance. If I didn't know I would say I am looking at a stock chart, that is violently consolidating right now before further upmove...

    Well, if your profitability trend keeps continuing, the next 2-3 months should be nicely profitable... Good luck and thanks again...

    *Just to be pedantic:

    1. 4 months drought, then making 50K
    2. 5 months drought then making 80K
    3. 5 months drought, then making 200K
    4. 7 months flat and >>>> ????
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2015
    #235     Jul 5, 2015
    Alpha Trader likes this.
  6. No, neke's posts are not informative, they are entertaining. Two very different things, and unfortunately, much less entertaining than in the past when he had weekly updates. Its almost like looking at last month's box scores, much less entertaining and interesting than looking at yesterday's box scores.

    How do you take 7 periods, according to you, over two years and consider that as a big enough sample size to predict what he will make over the next few months? It is this kind of micromanaging of useless info that get traders in trouble and a false sense of security and believing the past will repeat again in the future.

    The trading game is about risk management and edge, not about picking out useless stats from past performance as a crutch or belief that they will repeat in the future. In the future, the market can be Better OR Worse than now, we don't know. All we can do is rely on Edge and Proper risk management.
     
    #236     Jul 5, 2015
    Jimmy Ray likes this.
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I specially mentioned that it might not be a big enough sample size, so your post as usual, was worthless. I also tried to be upbeat about his performance, predicting positive future profits. I thought you were in the same boat, with the mindless cheering...

    But to be more relevant and useful, so let's do more stats. Neke made 11K per month on average (with a varying account size), with a lately very volatile record. To make it comparable to a small account trader, his performance is like a 5K account holder (let's say intraday ES trader) making $275 per month, or 1.5 ES points per week. (based on Neke's 200K average account)
     
    #237     Jul 5, 2015
  8. You are up 48%. You are not Madoff with a smooth equity curve, but you making real money.
     
    #238     Jul 14, 2015
  9. neke

    neke

    Account reset... Trying times
     
    #239     Jul 20, 2015
    recession2016 likes this.
  10. Withdrawal (hopefully).. ?
     
    #240     Jul 20, 2015