Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    There is a lot of talk of an impending crash in the markets, which of course none of us can foretell - but we can look at history to see what has happened in the past and then look to see if any similar signs might be developing now!

    http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes10.asp

    My opinion is that we could see a major decline start between now and 9/1/2015 (US date format).

    J_S
     
    #3931     Jun 30, 2015
  2. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    Update - major decline start between now and 8/24/2015 - 9/1/2015 (these 7 trading days could be significant).

    Approximate drop in indices from now to 9/1/2015

    Drop in SPX = 826 points

    Drop in INDU = 5,936 points

    Drop in NDX = 1,980 points

    Of course I might be way off with the timing and levels, but I might also be close?

    Only time will tell - my opinion only :)

    J_S
     
    #3932     Jun 30, 2015
  3. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    It would be rude of me to just post my opinion of direction, dates, and levels, with no mention of how I came up with same, so I will post the chart I used.

    I am reluctant to mention what is on the chart, as it might send some people off in the wrong direction and cost them some money if they try and trade same. Some traders will know what the chart is about.

    A more thorough check has resulted in the following changes, as the chart does not lend itself too kindly to lines on such a wide timespan - so actual dates had to be taken instead.

    Better to measure twice and cut once!

    Start date for decline still as of now.

    End date for decline is now 09/02/2016.

    A steep decline may start from 10/02/2015.

    Levels stay the same.

    Still just my opinion of course:)

    J_S

    Screen Shot 07-01-15 at 03.08 AM.PNG
     
    #3933     Jun 30, 2015
  4. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    J_S, you aren't fooling me, so why the sophistry?

    From your writings you have used certain phrases that are characteristic of certain TFF member(s). Your options posts are reminiscent of TO. The apparent difficulty you displayed trying to get the easy pdf password was a bad case of overacting. Of course MrC was in the TFF as has been stated but you suggest otherwise just to appear dim.
    :cool:
     
    #3934     Jul 2, 2015
  5. bogan22

    bogan22

    Hi,

    Your chart is interesting, and I think I get it.
    Surely one way of the FC's moving through the market. Cunning.
    Your moves indicate a 50% and 56% retracement's, your implying a couple of the indicies will be more volatile than the other. Interesting in itself.
    Not sure how you get the dates..or why you pick those levels.
    They surely are very very interesting levels when I zoom in and look closely.

    Regards
    Bogan22
     
    #3935     Jul 5, 2015
  6. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    MN,
    Have you lost your marbles:)
    J_S
     
    #3936     Jul 5, 2015
  7. J_Smith

    J_Smith

    B22,

    It is no more then what the article noted about past crashes, a little bit of looking back to see if any similarities are now showing, which it appears there are.

    Will it hold true, fact is no one can say for sure, but everyone knows about cycles and they just don't suddenly stop!

    My timing could be out by a few months, meaning we could see new highs in the near future, but unless the recent highs are taken out then we have started and could easily see a big sell off like in the past, anytime!

    This is why it is a lot easier for some to daytrade and not hold overnight positions, as large enough gaps could be around for a while to come yet.

    The dates and levels are based on the chart.

    J_S
     
    #3937     Jul 5, 2015
  8. bogan22

    bogan22

    JS,

    Thanks for the reply. Can't quite see where the dates come into it.. but I'll study it further tonight.

    Do you have another example of the above phenomenon?
    My chart has been adjusted and looks different to the one you have posted.

    Regards
    Bogan22
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
    #3938     Jul 6, 2015
  9. bogan22

    bogan22

    Well, MN has been with these threads and interacted with the OP's from the beginning.
    I'd tend to trust MN's judgement on such issues.

    Regards
    Bogan22
    182
     
    #3939     Jul 6, 2015
  10. 030985

    030985

    This is what I was thinking for some time too. The writing is very similar.
    Also you may notice the red, green and blue on last chart ( RGB what do I see ?), though it might be only coincidence. And you can see similarity with measured moves from TO. Here is one of TO's chart :

    [​IMG]

    But well, whatever who is who, the important is to read what is in the ink and think for ourselves. :D

    030985
     
    #3940     Jul 6, 2015
    bogan22 likes this.