Market Update 2015

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by daytraderrockstar, Jun 27, 2015.

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    China Rate Cut and Greece Deadline.. Extreme caution early in week

    Greece and China will have an effect on the markets early this week and because of that I feel the risk of calling a technical move is much higher then average. There are a lot of reasons for a bigger pull back in the markets and a lot of people looking for that pull back. Could Greece be the catalyst? I don't think we will get to see the effects of a Greek exit but in either case this week will be harder to predict. Sunday when futures open will give us our first clue on the effect of the recent events discussed.

    Right now between Greece breaking off negotiations over a new bailout and the deadline of Tuesday to see if the European central bank will continue to provide emergency funding to the Greek Banking System.

    and the the breaking news of yet another Chinese rate cut. Which some would think would lead to a pop in the Asian Markets Sunday and for that pop to carry over to the US futures open.

    The market will be in for a pretty interesting open Sunday night and Monday morning. It is fun to guess how this will play out and I will definitely share my thoughts Monday live on the air.

    I was very concerned about the rising wedge on the 60 min chart and the measured move target back down to 2095-2098 in the SPX S&P 500 Index.

    See below

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    From Wednesday the 24th

    "60 minute time frame is oversold and this has been a great timing tool but Greece overhangs everything. The charts have set up in a nice rising wedge pattern out of the larger channel breakout. The pullback today was expected but the energy seem a bit intense. Levels below on spx 2098-2095 look very nice. But not calling a perfect touch as the 60 min and 5 min are setting up for another move higher.. So recap.. Daily embedded and 60 ready, but many stocks over extended. Feel Greece will be a factor in the next move but not guessing how that will play out."

    Now lets look at where we are now

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    So whats next? News will play a part my thoughts are in the videos and the update.

    But in short to much risk to guess or take on any new positions other then some hedges and even those in some way are a gamble. Positive news could pop and then drop us and negative news could do just the opposite as the markets might be though with the games being played behind the scenes.

    DayTraderRockStar
     
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    Market Radar for July 1st and 2nd Upside Call

    From this past weekend's Market Radar till now when Greece has officially defaulted on there payment to the IMF the market has move in a highly expected manner, not because on the surface this seem like a very bad situation, but technically we perfectly setup for a pullback. I consistently map out the market day by day based on very strict "High probability Pattern" and a core set of indicators combined to give us the best opportunity of a tradeable market move. Nothing in the charts have proven this move has not been expected or in some cases not welcomed. The coinciding event of the Greek default in my opinion is a random coincidence but enough to exaggerate the move lower making the market feed on the added focus of this event.

    I have always said patterns and technical levels will be skewed and distorted and in most cases fail do to this outside event. This event has done damage to a lot of stocks and options but the one thing it hasn't done is break from the norm of the current daily SPX (S&P500)

    Below is 60 Minute chart of the SPX and as you can see it is a thing of beauty when looked at from a chartist perspective.We left off setting up in a bearish flag on the 60 min chart and I would actually like to see this break down early in the morning. Best levels to watch are 2050-2040. I will be able to narrow it down more tomorrow as the patterns set up.

    *** Note..As news will be breaking tomorrow morning and overnight things might move before the official open here in the U.S, So the downward break is something I will be prepared for but we could move right up from here if news comes across in a positive light. Which ever and how it happens the overall call is for a reversal higher tomorrow.. either out of the gate or a break down and reversal.


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    Below is the Daily Chart and you can see the Daily Stochastic Oscillator will be setting up July 1st and 2nd this has pretty much been a major signal for the markets (Remind me to talk about something I am just seeing on the chart)

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    Now we are not there 100% but i am going out on the proverbial limb to make the reversal call for tomorrow (preferably late morning)

    Some other interesting tidbits

    Stock Trader's Almanac

    "July’s first trading day is the fourth best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 852.55 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.49%. S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time (average gain 0.45%). NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 76.2% (0.25% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring July 1 the most bullish day of the year over the past 21 years. "

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    and one last thing Focus will be on the Referendum Vote this Sunday if no deal is reached before that. I think there is a good chance they will come to some sort of agreement before the vote but if not the "Polls" will play a part in market action as a "NO" vote will be taken as a sign that Greece want to leave the EU and a YES would probably but not necessarily mean a change in the current government.

    So the news will still play a major role in the short term trade. Caution is needed.

    See you in the Market tomorrow

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    Happy Fourth of July

    Well as you will know we are waiting for the Greek Vote Sunday to get a first look on how things will open up. Things will remain murky. The feeling I get is no one really knows how this will all play out in the end and where is the end. I don't think we will see a Greek exit of the EU but more negotiations as both sides try to gain some leverage.

    some chart patterns will break down as a result of perceived bad news. But that bad news should and will be a great opportunity to get a bit more active.

    I discuss some strong stocks that have been really holding near their respective highs and these even though are not pure HPS (High Probability Setup) entries need to be considered. Some examples are below

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  4. $LUV is now $36.98. Price Target Hit Great HPS (High Probability Setup Trade).

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