SPY: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...mer-rally-in-stocks-2015-05-22?dist=afterbell http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/05/26/3-reasons-why-stocks-are-sinking/ http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/26/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0OB01520150526 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/janet-yellen-warns-on-high-stock-market-valuations-1.3063837 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/05/26/stocks-summer-outlook/27782449/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy TRADE: With SPY at 210.70 Sept 225/230 bear call spread for a net credit of $36 Yield = 36/464 = 7.75% in 115 days or 24.6% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(36) - .08(464) - .07(232) =30.6 - 37.1 - 16.2 = -22.7 Price............... Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 160.00................ 36.00.................... 7.75% 180.00................ 36.00.................... 7.75% 210.00................ 36.00.................... 7.75% 225.00................ 36.00.................... 7.75% 225.36.................. 0.00.................... 0.00% 230.00.............. (464.00)............... -92.80% 235.00.............. (464.00)............... -92.80% 250.00.............. (464.00)............... -92.80% 275.00.............. (464.00)............... -92.80% By expectation it's too early to put in this bearish position. The graph looks a little bearish but can always reverse. I think the market is psychologically ready for a correction so I may take the trade anyway. If you wait until the trade is too obvious it's obvious to everybody and there's no money left in it. The key is that 225 call. Somebody is willing to pay .55 for it so maybe I should take him up on it.
TWC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/charter-buying-time-warner-cable-155719505.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/dorothy...-dunk/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...harter-time-warner-20150527-story.html#page=1 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=twc Trade: With TWC at 182.38 March 170/165 bull put spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 1 year or 13.6% annualized Prob=? Expectation = ? Price................... Profit / Loss................ ROM % 125.00.................... (440.00).................... -86.40% 150.00.................... (440.00).................... -86.40% 160.00.................... (440.00).................... -86.40% 165.00.................... (440.00).................... -86.40% 169.40......................... 0.00........................ 0.00% 170.00........................ 60.00...................... 13.60% 180.00........................ 60.00...................... 13.60% 200.00........................ 60.00...................... 13.60% 210.00........................ 60.00...................... 13.60%
SFXE: http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...tertainment-to-go-private-20150526-story.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.SFXE.NAS?symbol=SFXE&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=sfxe Trade: Dec 5/2.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 180 days or 22.2% annually Prob = ? Expectation = ? Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 1.75.................. (225.00)............... -90.00% 2.00.................. (225.00)............... -90.00% 2.50.................. (203.50)............... -81.40% 3.50.................. (115.20)............... -46.08% 4.48.................... (26.80)............... -10.72% 4.75....................... 0.00.................... 0.00% 5.00...................... 25.00................. 11.10% 6.00...................... 25.00................. 11.10% 6.50...................... 25.00..................11.10%
EROC: http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ds-eagle-rock-energy-partners-lp-soaring.aspx http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/eagle-rock-ma-vanguard-idUSL3N0YC5SN20150521 http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.EROC.NAS?symbol=EROC&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eroc Trade: Sell Jan '17 2.5 put for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/195 = 28.2% in 217 days or 47% annualized Prob = 99% Price................ Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 0.00......................(195.00)...........-78.00% 1.00.......................(95.00)..............-38.00% 1.88...................... (7.50)............... -3.00% 1.95........................ 0.00................. 0.00% 2.17....................... 21.50................ 8.60% 2.47....................... 52.10............... 20.84% 2.50....................... 55.00............... 28.20% 2.78....................... 55.00................28.20% 3.08....................... 55.00................28.20%
ALTR: http://nypost.com/2015/05/28/intel-nears-15b-deal-to-purchase-altera/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ALTR Trade: with ALTR at 46.97 Sept 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 112 days or 44% annualized Prob = ? Expectation = ? Price ................Profit / Loss .........ROM % 20.00 ...................(440.00) .............-88.00% 25.00 ...................(440.00) .............-88.00% 30.00 ...................(440.00) .............-88.00% 34.40 ........................0.00 .................0.00% 35.00 .......................60.00 ...............13.60% 40.00 .......................60.00 ...............13.60% 45.00 .......................60.00 ...............13.60% 50.00 .......................60.00 ...............13.60% 55.00 .......................60.00 ...............13.60%
BSX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boston-scientific-ordered-pay-100-153115157.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BSX+Key+Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BSX.NYS?symbol=BSX&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bsx TRADE: With BSX at 18.27 Jan 20/23 bear call spread for a net credit of $54 Yield = 54/246 = 22% in 231 days or 34.7% annualized Prob = 72% Price............ Profit / Loss......... ROM % 13.70................. 54.00 .............22.00% 16.59................. 54.00 .............22.00% 19.63................. 54.00 .............22.00% 20.00................. 54.00 .............22.00% 20.54................... 0.00 ..............0.00% 22.67............... (213.00) .........-71.00% 23.00............... (246.00)......... -82.00% 25.71............... (246.00)......... -82.00% 28.75............... (246.00)......... -82.00%
BMY: http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-can...how-promise-1432922592?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp http://www.marketwatch.com/story/br...ting-drug-trial-data-2015-05-29?siteid=yhoof2 http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BMY.NYS?symbol=BMY&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bmy Trades: with BMY at 64.6 Trade #1 Dec 75/77.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 201 days or 20.2% annualized Prob = 82% Expectation = .82(25) - .13(225) - .05(112) = 20.5 - 29.2 - 5.6 = -14.3 Price............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 45.00.................. 25.00................ 11.10% 55.00.................. 25.00................ 11.10% 65.00.................. 25.00................ 11.10% 75.00.................. 25.00................ 11.10% 75.25.................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 77.31................ (205.90)............. -82.36% 80.00................ (225.00)............. -90.00% 85.00................ (225.00)............. -90.00% 90.00................ (225.00)............. -90.00% Trade #2 Dec 57.5/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $27 Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 201 days or 22.0% annualized Prob = 73% Expectation = .73(27) - .20(223) - .07(111) = 19.7 - 44.6 - 7.8 = -32.7 Price.................... Profit / Loss............. ROM % 40.00........................ (223.00)............... -89.20% 45.00........................ (223.00)............... -89.20% 55.00........................ (223.00)............... -89.20% 56.81.......................... (41.90)............... -16.76% 57.23............................. 0.00................... 0.00% 57.50............................ 27.00................. 12.10% 65.00............................ 27.00................. 12.10% 70.00............................ 27.00................. 12.10% 80.00............................ 27.00................. 12.10%
http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/06/01/why-the-oil-price-will-fall-again/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO Trade: Jan '16 25/30 bear call spread for a net credit of $48 Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 227 days or 17% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .8(48) - .06(452) - .14(226) = 38.4 - 27.12 - 31.64 = -20 = not great but not unfair Price.....Profit / Loss.......ROM % 15.00....... 48.00.............. 9.60% 20.00....... 48.00.............. 9.60% 24.00....... 48.00.............. 9.60% 25.00....... 48.00.............. 9.60% 25.48......... 0.00.............. 0.00% 28.62..... (313.50)......... -62.70% 30.00..... (452.00)......... -90.40% 33.00..... (452.00)......... -90.40% 37.50..... (452.00)......... -90.40%
UNH: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-tops-street-1q-forecasts-100940976.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-returns-more-shareholders-hikes-164004416.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.UNH.NYS?symbol=UNH&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNH Trade: With UNH at 116.54 Jan 90/87.5 Bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 225 days or 18% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(25) - .03(225) - .02(113) = 23.8 - 6.75 - 2.26 = 14.8 Price.............. Profit / Loss......... ROM % 70.00................ (225.00)............. -90.00% 80.00................ (225.00)............. -90.00% 87.50................ (225.00)............. -90.00% 89.75..................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 90.00................... 25.00................ 11.10% 95.00................... 25.00................ 11.10% 100.00................. 25.00................ 11.10% 110.00................. 25.00................ 11.10% 120.00................. 25.00................ 11.10%
HCN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/health-care-reit-hcn-rating-192507782.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hcn-completes-750-million-senior-210100494.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/health-care-reit-reports-1q-113955537.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=HCN http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HCN+Interactive#{"range":"2y"} Trade: With HCN at 69.62 Jan 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 224 days or 14.2% annualized Prob = 92.7% Expectation = .927(40) - .02(460) - .06(230) = 37 - 9.2 - 13.8 = 14 Price........... Profit / Loss......... ROM % 37.00............. (460.00)............. -92.00% 47.00............. (460.00)............. -92.00% 50.00............. (460.00)............. -92.00% 54.60.................. 0.00................. 0.00% 55.00................. 40.00................. 8.70% 60.00................. 40.00................. 8.70% 65.00................. 40.00................. 8.70% 70.00................. 40.00................. 8.70% 80.00................. 40.00................. 8.70%