Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. Haha I'm right there with you. still a profit though!
     
    #601     May 20, 2015
  2. lx008

    lx008

    soybeans N-X can go below 10 ,for USDA planting area report by end of June can hit it real hard, US farmers seem to plant more beans than USDA previous est.

     
    #602     May 20, 2015
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  3. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Seriously check the soymeal curve right now...If it is not a buying opportunity on Oct-2Dec+Jan Fly, I don't know what is. It is really odd, Oct/Dec is moving 2 ticks per day while Dec/Jan is moving 7.
     
    #603     May 22, 2015
  4. Soymeal is a strange market for me. However its kind of classic to have distinct moves when expiries belong to two different harvests ?
     
    #604     May 22, 2015
  5. I would prefer to trade that soymeal will return in backwardation, something like short dec/long oct
     
    #605     May 22, 2015
  6. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Yes but here October is kind of intercrop , just like Sep on Corn. Sometimes it is lower than December and represent the new supply but sometimes not. Here we have Oct/Dec in carry as if oct was new crop but surprise the next two months are backwards??? Long Oct/Short Dec was my initial position. I have been riding it for 1 or 2 months( and it went within 1 tick of my target...GRRR), I just added the short Dec/Long Jan recently after the WASDE.
     
    #606     May 22, 2015
  7. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Out @ -0.325 before the long WE.:)
     
    #607     May 22, 2015
  8. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Out half of it @ 5. The rest soon in stratosphere hopefully.
     
    #608     May 26, 2015
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  9. I'm still in this one, I really debated on getting out when I saw it at 5.3/5.4 this morning but missed that opportunity. Playing it by ear for now.

    I actually might have an opportunity to get about 25-50 bred heifers soon depending on how the numbers crunch out. There are some beginning rancher/farmer loans the gov offers at very low rates for about a 7 yr term I believe that I am talking with our local office about. Waiting to hear back on all the details tomorrow. My parents have the land, so I would essentially just lease the land from them then put the heifers out there.

    Using relatively generous estimates I am showing the debt would be paid off and it could turn a profit year 4. That's no growth, just simply selling all the steers at 500lbs and keeping the heifers to sell around 2yrs old as bred. The goal would be to pay the loan off quickly, but depending on the composition of what's born, I would more than likely end up keeping some of the heifers to grow the herd as I have enough space to maintain about 50 cows.

    Do you all have any thoughts you care to share on the direction of long term beef prices?

    The loan structure will kind of determine if I move forward with it though. I don't want a larger loan to screw me over for trying to get a new house if we need to sell the current one for my job or something, so that will be my main hold-up.

    I'm trying to diversify my income streams early on in life (just turned 23) so I can have several things going and start building some wealth.
     
    #609     May 26, 2015
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  10. i960

    i960

    Hah, are we talking like an oil storage type trade here? Actually trading in the physical underlying sounds pretty hard core. Do those loans take into account feed and care in addition to purchase?
     
    #610     May 26, 2015