Black Monday

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bond_trad3r_II, Apr 17, 2015.

  1. Could it be? Could this be it?

    (if we close at or near the lows, otherwise please disregard)
     
  2. loyek590

    loyek590

    getting warm here where I live. About time to start assessing your bets on the summer turtle races. I'm putting all my money on Yellon Boy. He's a little old and big to be racing, but he's a real mover.
     
  3. Mock. But when he crash happens, you better be ready to trade it. And profit from it. We are long overdue. History never repeats...

     
  4. S2007S

    S2007S

    another black monday thread started, that means we might close higher on Monday...

    will see what Monday brings, if we close at the lows of the day off 400-500 points sunday night most of chinas markets are certainly going to feel the pinch, then the US markets will open lower and probably rally like they always do, also keep in mind its earnings season so Im sure most stocks reporting next week will just barely beat earnings....oh and don't forget 2068 on the s$p, we could drop significantly if that breaks..
     
    bond_trad3r_II likes this.
  5. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Oops.png

    I think there's trouble in paradise, but it's very hard to know if Monday is the Day, perhaps after IBM earnings, perhaps MSFT, AAPL that is now part of the Dow, any of those usual suspects could do it.

    The uptrend line is certainly looking overly used.
     
  6. Slainte

    Slainte

    Maybe when there is a Grexit this weekend.
     
  7. The worst that can happen to Greek itself is referendum, and most of the Greeks people ( i recall is 75% from the survey) still want to stay in Euro with "any cost" even they refuse to pay their debt, and after the referendum, the "new" coalition government can go back and borrow more money from German with the "claim" of support from the Greek people - joke of the week.

    What you think the market can go to eventually ?
     
  8. Slainte

    Slainte

    Referendum? They just had an election and got the government they want. Only this government isn't delivering anything and the EU is really fed up with them.

    When there is a Grexit I think the markets will react fierce at first, but soon one will realize that in the end it is not such a big deal.
     
  9. If I had a nickel for every Black Monday prediction I've seen land in the trash can a week later, I'd have no fear of going broke when Black Monday finally arrives.

    I managed to get myself on a mailing list for a contrarian stock newsletter that is always predicting that "The market has just signaled it's topping! Buy our newsletter to find out how to profit from the crash before it's too late!" They've been sending out that same sort of message for a couple years now.

    Now, I'm a bit of a contrarian myself, but my conclusion is that nobody can really predict the top. Inevitably, somebody WILL predict the top, if only because a broken clock is right at least twice a day. But it won't be because they had actual foresight. I think it's clear that the market is overheated. But when will it break? That's the $1T question. I don't know. You could miss a lot of gains in the mean time, gains that will actually help buffer the downside when it arrives. IMO, rather than predicting the exact date, you should just approach the market daily on its own terms, taking it as it comes. And have a plan for how you're going to trade it to the downside when that finally arrives. Because it will. But I don't think anybody can tell you for certain when that will be.
     
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    No, no one can see it in real time. But once it's broken its uptrend and failed to make a higher high (or even come close), it's a safe bet that some "retracing" will take place, e.g., the NQ in '00 and '07.

    Neither the ES nor the NQ are anywhere near breaking their trends.
     
    #10     Apr 18, 2015
    Gringo likes this.