USD and US interest rates are are factor along with the oil specific stuff. Emerging markets, gold and oil all responding to US expectations of later rather than sooner rate hikes. Seems so anyways.
Time for an update on my brilliant stock trade! Up 6.04% today with OSE making all time highs. I'm not complaining. Not selling yet, of course. When you pick a winning stock, you don't sell it as soon as it shows a profit. Where are my detractors now?
If you are long Statoil based strictly upon the price of crude, I think it just a bit too early to rejoice. Three or four weeks of solid closing prices above $55.00 would auger better if that's your premise to own OSE.
Nice chart, Bone. I'm basing it on a lot of things. As for crude, I personally believe the bottom is in. Those who called the top were bloody briliant, but as far as I'm concerned, the down move is over so the current bears is late to the party. Doesn't mean I'm super bullish short term/medium term either. May very well range around here for a while.
I think that's a decent guess. All we really know is that the market currently accepts a valuation of between $45-$55 per barrel at present. In terms of the futures it's my guess that old shorts have covered, old longs have puked, and I would imagine that new longs and new shorts are quite anxious as we wander around what appears to be a new control area. The longer we spend in this price range in terms of time, the more accepted the new reality becomes. Props to Steidelmeyer.
Look at oil, fellas. I'm going to have to start planning my exit in Statoil. I may not exit just yet, but I need a plan. I'll get back to you on this.
For the sake of context, please keep in mind that the basis for your OP and your StatOil trade was the price of crude oil ( your own words ). As such, either gloating or lamenting about one day's move in CL with a 120 day historical volatility of 52.51 isn't really on point. Since you are still in university, a pearl I will pass on is that it's a rookie tendency to NOT set a stop-loss and profit target at the time of trade entry - and then cover a trade at a profit level roughly corresponding to the drawdown suffering he has endured to date. Good luck, and I hope you cover it at $30.
I had a stop-loss and an idea of a profit target, but the profit target is not set in stone and with conditions being what they are, I'm inclined to think the market is poised to go even further than this. Why sell a winner too early? It would be an amateur move in my book. When I day traded ES it was much easier to set a target in advance since I knew that market fairly well and what was to be expected on any given day. I didn't have any drawdown to speak of, as my entry was fairly good, if I can be so bold. Was $30 a joke? My chart looks different than yours though. I'm considering a trailing stop, but I'm not so sure. The only thing I've decided is that I won't hold this stock on the next DEEP retracement that will come sooner or later.
Nice move in oil today. I have now put in a protective stop at 150 NOK securing a handsome profit even if I'm stopped out. Ideally, I'll be able to sell my stock at 165-170 NOK. Still, I'm not interested in following along on a deep retrace should that happen from here, hence my protective trailing stop. With Statoil closing strongly today and oil making year highs after the stock market close, I'm expecting follow through tomorrow if this move in oil holds up.