Your point certainly seems to hold truth right now, Martin. However, there does have to be SOME kind of low coming our way. With Lorenzo quickly becoming nothing, winter approaching, currency settling and inventories turning a corner, one would have to assume that we will be in a period of consolidation between now and January. I'm expecting lower crude prices heading into the winter. We probably won't see $50 oil, but I don't expect prices over $80 much longer either.
I recently received a newsletter from O&F that suggested $100 oil by end of year. I find O&F to be quite reliable on short-term trades, but have not had so much luck with their long term forecasts. This would appear, in my mind, to be some of the worst advice they've ever offered, long term, imho. $100 oil before the end of the decade, that I can see. Myself, I see the same thing as last year. $60 oil. $50 as a remote possibility. Oh, and I must ask,,,,can anyone provide an explanation for backwardated crude all the way to 2015? Do they really think it's going to get cheaper 7 years from now?