at the moment I am just entering on stops, which if you think about it is even worse than a market order, because it is a market order at anything but an entry opportunity. It isn't about momentum. 50% get filled at the top and 50% get filled on momentum. But those that get filled on momentum later look very lucky.
Thank you for the sentiment. Your postings are always well thought out. I do think though we may be discussing different things when we refer to momentum. What I am speaking about is a pullback and basing with renewed momentum upwards in an uptrend and the exact opposite in downtrend. I am not speaking of buying (or selling) using just one chart and chasing the market when it has moved already. From my experience, momentum trades are the least risky and most profitable and that is why i feel we may be referring to differing phenomena.
The shorter the time frame, the more important it is for some trader's plans to use exacting limit orders. However, many trades, some of them good, are then missed in the futile attempt to be right all of the time. Setting a stop outside the noise and letting a winner run farther, allows the thoughtful trader, to use market orders and not miss trades.
I am speaking of retracement then like a 2 tick breakout of lowest highest which would be thought as advancing with momentum? Whereas if one is using 61.8% retracement, waiting for price to come back that far (depending on one's rules that not every 61.8% is equal), to be buying on a limit is far different and often offer higher best percentages than entering on 2 tick breakout. I think just doing momentum is breakeven way of trading unless you have figured out a way to use on consistent basis, but I often get in using other method way below like the 2 tick breakout of a bar. Some of your posts I certainly do agree but I like traders that have opposing ideas as it challenges my thoughts. How dull a world if we all had the same?
Traded for like 24 years, larger profits and no targets, yep, my losing percents were much larger what I try to maintain today. I went a completely different direction five years ago, what "if" I can design a method that at least 50% of the time I can make one tick, have more than one tick 40- 45% and work at less than 10% losing trades, what I wanted to achieve is what all say never to do, average down on every level till area most likely says trade will not work out. Still a work in progress, but it is how I trade each day. I found with limit entries, each tick is huge for me, two tick to two point moves in ES is where I get out of 99.5% of size, testing shows me too often where price goes couple ticks above this and comes back netting me less that two points. Yes, my average per trade some weeks is only $17 bucks on every contract, has nothing to do with needs to be right or ego, it has to be of extracting money. "thoughtful trader" ??? In first 90 minutes of trading I take 4-35 trades, so I actually have cut back on signals to lower blood pressure, LOL. So missing a trade?
Can't seem to fall asleep tonight, too many of these nights, so I trade and how to take indicators as I see them in different ways to use, test or offer others ideas which is what forums were designed. I often use indicators or price patterns and instead of doing what others do for signals, I want to first risk less, any entry has 50/50 chance of being profitable, better chance of getting to breakeven plus one. Parabolics SAR made by Welles Wilder made a host of indicators back in the 1970s, instead of using it as always in(horrible in chop) use it as trend identifier, where price hits Parabolic, will place either limit or market order at better price, each instrument looks to have different, couple ticks in Bonds or penny in Beans. So get in better, risk next to nothing, trade two lot taking profit on first one of few to several ticks and go for greater ticks on second. And of course back test well and devise a Trading Plan.
Aren't we at the bottom of seasonal strength at this time of the year? I think it will make another run for the upper trendline in the next few days. However, that previous congestion is like the doldrums.
You've identified an area that is an obvious short term bottom on the daily. The weekly agrees with this somewhat as well with the big test being in the 1050 area. If it can't break through there, then it should continue moving downwards as we are in a major downtrend on the weekly and monthly. Longs can be taken but with a short tether as they are countertrend. Need to be very careful with longs here. Currently the stop out level for a long is around 940. I should point at the signal was a few days ago 20 cents lower. Why posting now?==Now there would be a 43 cent stop.
Diagonal lines drawn well here although not fully necessary. Horizontal lines are not in the right places and are not needed.