You can tell those who ask that you're in the process of characterizing your market. They won't know what that means but it'll sound impressive and they will likely then leave you alone.
I had my levels marked for today's session. Seems that starting out in a range is all too familiar these days and to be honest, I don't see the range behavior as well with a 5min chart. However, that's probably a good thing because then I stay out of the fray. 0950 close to PDL - switch to 1min to see LHs. Didn’t matter - price took off all the way up to 49. In hindsight, I see a LH, but did not see the significance of that movement in real time as I expected another test - not such a dramatic bounce. Teaches me not to expect anything. 1010 inching toward the swing high from overnight for the 2nd time since the open. 1020 another try up toward the ON swing point, but makes less progress than the last time. However, 1015 didn’t go any lower than 1000. But since price has been ranging, these slight nuances aren’t all that important - not until price breaks out. 1045 price meets and exceeds (by a tick) the swing area I’ve got marked. (Price had already exited the hinge to the down and was doing so up at 1045.) Then price immediately heads back down to and through 49 so I start looking at the 1min chart. Then a slight up and I sensed the LH as it was forming. I didn't take an official sim entry of the LH at 1049, but I noted it on my chart and rode the roller coaster down as if I had taken the trade. My goal right now is to be focusing on the larger time period PDHs and PDLs. But when price hit near the swing area on so many occasions, it was acting as a barrier and I figured a rejection might be in order. When it coincided with the 2nd exit of the hinge, things just seemed to line up. Price paused here and there, but nothing substantial. Price sailed through (with just a slight pause) at the PDL area. When the LH occurred at 1116, I figured the down move might be coming to an end, but I was waiting for price to retrace at least to 4432 - plus the SL hadn’t been broken. Price bopped out of the SL around 1127, but as soon as it went out, it came back in and then slammed through 4420 - another PDL.
I think you mean "HL," Higher Low [LH would indicate a Lower High, imo]. Good job switching to the shorter bar interval near the lower limit of the range support. I'd bet you might want to replay 9:50 through 9:54 using one minute bar interval - very common reversal behavior on NQ, imo, and replaying it about 100 times this weekend will allow you to recognize it instantly the next time you see it (which will probably be four or five times next week). The key was the proximity to the lower levels of the range. Absent a break with no HL such as at 11:06 - 11:08, train your mind to think "reversal." Now that I said that, I would think 11:04 - 11:09 worth replaying and studying, and also 12:07 - 12:17. I always spent my replay where it mattered most to me: The moments leading into and then away from a previously identified level, (in this case, the failure of price in the area of Wednesday's low). I know many say it is the exits not the entries that make the $$, but I really focus on spotting the turns and entering there. Wyckoff has a nice essay on this in one of his books. I'll try to find it for you this weekend.
It is in Stock Market Technique vol. 1 I could not find it electronically, so I retyped here for you. If you want to read anymore, you're going to have to go to Fraser Publishing's website and buy it lol Spotting the Turning Points, by Richard D. Wyckoff, Stock Market Technique, vol. 1, pages 83-84 This is one of the most difficult feats in judging the stock market. Very few traders or investors can do this. It requires expert knowledge and long experience. There are several different kinds of turning points: that of the day's swing - the high or low spot for a single session; or the end of a 3 to 5 point swing; or of a 10 to 30 points swing. But most important of all, and the most difficult, is spotting the final culminating point: where a bull market ends and a bear market begins. And there is a top day - for the whole market (based on the averages) and for every single stock. It is, of course, not the same day for every issue; some begin to slide off weeks and months before others; but the records show when the final high wave breaks that is the psychological moment for getting out of everything. How many were able to see and to act correctly on the final turning point when the bull market ended in early September 1929? Very few. If you are in the market you should begin at once to cultivate the knowledge that will enable you, next time, to do this vital thing - spot the top. You may argue that tops like 1929 don't occur often enough. That is both true and untrue. If we study the characteristics - the symptoms - that occur on the tops of the small swings (the daily, the 3-5 point and the 10-30 point) we find that they display indications that are similar to those of the big top, just as a drop of sea water analyzes the same as a bucketful. But if we ignore these facts; if we fail to learn; then we must naturally expect to find ourselves again loaded with long stocks at high prices when the top of the next bull market is recorded. Blaming our broker or someone else will not then get out money back; we shall have no one to blame but ourselves. Not only can one learn to observe and to act on the turning points; he can go farther and become aware of the approach. By thus anticipating them, he can unload as close to the apex as anyone can expect. And when you have done this rare and desirable thing, the money you will thus release for buying when the bear market ends will pay for several times as many shares at bargain prices. I may be taking an ET break this week, at least for a few days (good for the soul to remove oneself from the interweb society occasionally, imo). I know you've done back testing in the past, but now that you have a better idea as to what to test, which data you are looking to collect, and how you can use it to develop a trading plan, get on with it. You are days or weeks, not months or years away from your goal. Have a good week!
Haven't been posting as much due to some family obligations this week, but all that means is that I've been behind the scenes working without the ET audience. I've been backtesting - looking at major areas (PDHs, PDLs, swing points) and looking for "tells" of a reversal - LHs at resistance and HLs at support. I've been astounded by what I've seen of how many opportunities present themselves for low risk entries (very low MAE) with quick movement in the trade's favor. Quick movement isn't what this is all about, but seeing movement away from the entry is pleasing! Now it's up to me to A) plot those levels appropriately, B) sit on my hands until the behavior presents itself and then C) take the trades. The only thing stopping me from progressing is me.