I didn't mean an immediate arb or front running. I mean long term product volume growth. From the site: (B-4) IDEM (Index, Debt and Energy Market) Members: Trades: Fed Funds, and index futures Badge: Black That includes the $5 mini Dow. I used to have that Product list by membership pdf. It seems to have disappeared from the net. So, do you believe in an increase in trading volume for the Dow? Which would then result in increased seat prices long term?
It's amazing how elusive that product list is. I've only stumbled across it a few times. You'd think they would try to make it a little more accessible. I guess it's possible that would generate more interest in the long term. At least I doubt it would hurt. I suspect most people using that seat would focus more on fed funds - because that's what I would do - but I'm just speculating. It would be interesting to have a more active Dow. CME management and seat owners' relationship is pretty poor nowadays. I'm unsure of their motives
Some ex-floor guy once chatted me in ET on the story state of fixed income futures. Even the venerable Euro and T-Bond pits. As for fed funds, that will be fleeting. Having gone thru a product list by volume and open interest. It really looked like $5Dow was the only credible product. But then and even now, it's a rather thin market. Put in a 5 lot order and you'll see the price ladder reshuffle and the spread widen. Algos see you coming from a mile away. Thus the $5k seat price. A nice speculation for a guy who once dreamed of wearing the badge+jacket.
IMO, unless you have a "lot" of capital, I would lease not buy. I think the days of memberships being a great investment have passed.
IDEM (has YM) was $10k-$15k. Now, $5,000. I will wait for the listing at Groupon. IOM seems to have dropped since I last posted. From $110 to $70K, if I remember right. Bad times for FOP market makers?