Assuming earnings was last Friday then I "predict" the value on Monday would be about $1.20 - minus the bid/ask spread.
My $1.20 estimate is good. I predicted that if the underlining trades flat after earnings the short straddle will drop in value, which it did. I wouldn't consider leaving out information about the underlining a "curveball". The more that is known about the underlining the more precise the option strategies performance can be predicted.
You said you didn't need any information other than the stock price today and where the stock price is going. But you are a simpleminded troll like many others on this site (who have since "vanished")
That is correct. Before the trade is opened the trader should be able to predict or "visualize" a rough value of any option strategy if the stock reaches +0%, +5%, -5%, etc. at whatever date in the future.
..... I'm confused.. how are you going to predict a option price with just the percentage otm? vols change....
he's not wrong that one should have a pretty good idea of where an option should trade near term plus/minus Vega change.