PG: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-pg-misses-earnings-131901308.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-fiscal-2q-earnings-131551889.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1302...hares-on-pullback.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PG Key Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=pg Trade: with PG at 86.25 July 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 171 days or 16% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(35) - .07(465) - .10(233) = 29.1 - 32.6 - 23.3 = -26.8 Price...........Profit/ Loss.........ROM % 80.00............35.00................7.50% 85.00............35.00................7.50% 90.00............35.00................7.50% 95.00............35.00................7.50% 95.35..............0.00................0.00% 100.00.........(465.00)...........-93.00% 110.00.........(465.00)...........-93.00% 115.00.........(465.00)............-93.00% 125.00..........(465.00)...........-93.00% Alternate: with PG at 86.25 July 75/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 171 days or 13.6% Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(30) - .02(470) - .07(235) = 27.3 - 9.4 - 16.4 = 1.5 Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 60.00.................(470.00).............-94.00% 65.00.................(470.00).............-94.00% 70.00.................(470.00).............-94.00% 74.26...................(43.70)..............-8.74% 74.70.....................0.00..................0.00% 75.00....................30.00..................6.38% 80.00....................30.00..................6.38% 90.00....................30.00..................6.38% 100.00..................30.00..................6.38% Hmmm.....could do an Iron Condor
T http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-fourth-quarter-revenue-rises-212927994.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-costs-drag-t-4q-215445662.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/at...-after-earnings-beat-2015-01-27?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=T Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=T Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: With T at 32.81 July 28/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $28 Yield = 28/272 = 10.29% in 171 days or 22% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(28) - .02(272) - .09(136) = 24.92 - 5.44 - 12.24 = 7.5 Price............Profit / Loss.........ROM % 20.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67% 23.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67% 25.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67% 27.52..............(20.00)................-6.67% 27.72.................0.00....................0.00% 28.00................28.00..................10.29% 30.00................28.00..................10.29% 35.00................28.00..................10.29% 40.00................28.00..................10.29%
GE: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/technology/general-electric-q4-earnings.html?_r=0 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=GE&annual http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=GE http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}} http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: with GE at 23.84 Jan '16 20/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $26. Yield = 26/174 = 14.9% in 352 days or 15.5% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(26) - .03(174) - .09(87) = 22.9 - 5.2 - 7.8 = 10 Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 13.50..........(174.00)...............-87.00% 16.63..........(174.00)...............-87.00% 18.00..........(174.00)...............-87.00% 19.74...............0.00...................0.00% 19.92.............18.10...................9.05% 20.00.............26.00..................14.90% 23.21.............26.00..................14.90% 26.51.............26.00..................14.90% 29.80.............26.00..................14.90%
CREE: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-inc-cree-shares-march-142602370.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-tops-street-2q-forecasts-212459065.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1301...ter-earnings-beat.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/summit-research-says-cree-nothing-140458203.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CREE.NAS?symbol=CREE&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cree Trade: with CREE at 35.75 Sept 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.22% in 231 days or 13% annualized Prob = 86% Expectation = .86(38) - .03(462) - .11(231) = 32.7 - 13.9 - 25.4 = -6.6 Price................Profit / Loss............ROM % 15.00................(462.00)..............-92.40% 20.00................(462.00)..............-92.40% 20.70................(392.20)..............-78.44% 24.62....................0.00...................0.00% 25.00...................38.00..................8.22% 26.70...................38.00..................8.22% 32.69...................38.00..................8.22% 38.69...................38.00..................8.22% 44.69...................38.00..................8.22%
RES: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-rpc-res-bear-060006065.html http://news.investors.com/business/...s-as-oil-companies-like-cenovus-cut-costs.htm http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RES Key Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=res Trade: with RES at 12.47 SEP 17.5/20 bear call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 228 days or 17.8% annualized Prob = 85.6% Expectation = .86(25) - .075(225) - .065(113) = 21.5 - 16.9 - 7.3 = -3 Price............Profit / Loss..........ROM % 10.00..............25.00..................11.10% 12.50..............25.00..................11.10% 15.00..............25.00..................11.10% 17.50..............25.00..................11.10% 17.75................0.00....................0.00% 18.68.............(92.80)................-37.12% 20.00...........(225.00)................-90.00% 22.50...........(225.00)................-90.00% 25.00...........(225.00)................-90.00%
TEVA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-beats-q4-earnings-penny-140102238.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TEVA.NYS?symbol=TEVA&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=teva Trade: With TEVA at $58 #1 Sept 47.50/45 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 223 days or 18.2% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(25) - .13(225) - .04(113) = 20.25 - 29.25 - 4.25 = -13.25 #2 Sept 50/47.50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 223 days or 31% annualized Prob = 74% Expectation = .74(40) - .19(210) - .07(105) = 29.6 - 39.9 - 7.4 = -17.7 These two expectations are not significantly different from each other. The second trade has a higher payout but a lower probability and the two factors balance each other pretty closely. From a purely statistical point of view, if I consistently trade either strategy the long term result will be pretty close to the same....zero.
ABBV: http://online.barrons.com/news/arti...4580437782429687348?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ABBV Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.ABBV.NYS?symbol=ABBV&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ABBV Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: with ABBV at 56.90 Jan '16 45/42.50 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/200 = 25% in 341 days or 27% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(50) - .16(200) - .06(150) = 39 - 32 - 9 = -2 Price.....................Profit / Loss...............ROM % 31.88......................(200.00)...................-80.00% 39.41......................(200.00)...................-80.00% 42.50......................(200.00)...................-80.00% 44.50...........................0.00.......................0.00% 45.00.........................50.00......................25.00% 50.00.........................50.00......................25.00% 55.00.........................50.00......................25.00% 60.00.........................50.00......................25.00% 65.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
FSLR: http://www.forbes.com/sites/miguelh...olar-farm-to-power-all-california-operations/ http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.FSLR.NAS?symbol=FSLR&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FSLR http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fslr Trade: with FSLR at 49.46 Jan '16 40/37.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $150 Price.............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 30.00.............(100.00)...............-40.00% 35.00.............(100.00)...............-40.00% 37.50.............(100.00)...............-40.00% 38.50..................0.00...................0.00% 40.00...............150.00.................60.00% 42.50...............150.00.................60.00% 45.00...............150.00.................60.00% 50.00...............150.00.................60.00%
TSLA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-4q-profit-falls-strong-223908770.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-posts-q4-miss-blames-235410086.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-s-wrong-with-tesla---maybe-nothing-145056303.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA Trade: With TSLA at 204.50 Jun 265/270 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 124 days or 32.7% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .8(50) - .18(450) - .02(225) = 40 - 81 - 4.5 = -45.5 Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM % 159.60...............50.00....................11.11% 193.74...............50.00....................11.11% 229.68...............50.00....................11.11% 265.00...............50.00....................11.11% 265.50.................0.00.....................0.00% 265.62..............(12.10)..................-2.42% 270.00..............(450.00)...............-90.00% 301.56..............(450.00)...............-90.00% 337.50..............(450.00)...............-90.00%
WMT: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2837796-wal-mart-set-for-a-promising-2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WMT Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: with WMT at 85.81 Sept 70/67.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $21 Yield = 21/229 = 9.2% in 215 days or 15.6% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(21) - .05(229) - .03(115) = 19.3 - 11.4 - 3.4 = 4.5 Price..............Profit / Loss............ROM % 50.00...............(229.00)................-91.60% 60.00...............(229.00)................-91.60% 67.50...............(229.00)................-91.60% 69.79....................0.00....................0.00% 70.00...................21.00...................9.20% 75.00...................21.00...................9.20% 80.00...................21.00...................9.20% 85.00...................21.00...................9.20% 90.00...................21.00...................9.20%