I'm starting this trading thread to post all articles showing that these markets only know one direction, UP. There will be no problem finding articles on an hourly basis relating to most money managers saying they see nothing but an up market....this will be interesting because we already know that today's markets are totally risk free money printing machines, there is nothing that can stop this ultimate bull market, nothing....it's a bull market that no one has ever been through, think about it, this is the first time in our lives that we are living through something of this magnitude, nothing this great has ever been witnessed on wallstreet before, this is something that we will look back on and think this is the kind of thing that only happens in a fantasy like world, nope this is real. This bull market is here to stay forever, I tell you no lie my friends. .. So to start off this great thread tonight I have an article, Dow 18,000 just the beginning........yes just the beginning, as I said we all know this is a risk free market, zero risk. Dow 18,000 just the beginning: Pros Michelle Fox | @MFoxCNBC 2 Hours AgoCNBC.com 48 SHARES 15 COMMENTSDow Jones industrial average to break 18,000 soon, and go even higher. "The overriding thing driving this market up and the reason it will break 18,000 is not the oil patch, it is theFed patch. It's the $4.5 trillion that they jammed into the economy that's pushing every asset price higher almost every day," John Rutledge, chief investment strategist at Safanad, said in an interview with "Street Signs." However, falling oil, even sustained prices in the high $60s, low $70s, will help fuel the rally, Sandy Villere, co-portfolio manager at Villere & Co., said, because it will keep inflation low. "Janet Yellen said we're going to keep rates low for a long time, until we meet that 2 percent target. So as long as inflation's beneath that, that means rates are going to be low and that is going to buoy the markets and continue it through 18,000 and above," he said. Brendan McDermid | Reuters Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Dec. 4, 2014. While low oil prices will have a negative impact on U.S. production and gross domestic product, they are also a major tax cut for the consumer and manufacturing facilities that are "guzzling petroleum products," Villere added. But he doesn't think low oil prices will be around for a while. "I don't think it's going to stay down here for long term. There's a finite amount of it," Villere said. "Looking at all these shale drillers, you're going to see the production come down dramatically." Rutledge agreed, noting that prices are down because of the market, not any grand plan by OPEC. "Nobody here is intentionally driving oil prices down. They're just happening because of the increase in production and soft demands. Those things will reverse," he said. In fact, the International Energy Agency estimates that the demand for energy is going to increase by 50 percent in the next 25 years thanks to emerging markets, and it will take $37 trillion of capital spending to meet that demand, said Rutledge, also a CNBC contributor. "There's an incredible demand for capital coming out there. That is good for investors. So 18,000 is just the beginning," he said.
Please dont quote any article from CNBC, whatever they say, it always goes the opposite way. I still remember not a while ago, I browsed the website of cnbc and saw the headline "has we topped" when dow was close to 16000, and a lot of articles implied that meaning of yes and there was a potential that we have really topped. Yet you see where we are now. It's the most contrarian indicator, looks like we are about to top. "So 18,000 is just the beginning", yes, it's the beginning of down turn.
Another find this evening, S $ P to 2300, and this is not by the end of 2015, no sir, this is by June which only means the S $ P goes to 2800+ by end of 2015 no questions asked, maybe close out the year at 3000. Free money for everyone, why even work when you can literally have your money working for you. Opinion: Stock market guru’s new forecast: S&P 500 at 2,300 in six months By Mark Hulbert Published: Dec 5, 2014 6:00 a.m. ET SHARE 22 The market timer Sam Eisenstadt was correct in his last six-month prediction LONDON (MarketWatch) — Here’s some holiday good cheer: Sam Eisenstadt, who outshines virtually every other stock market timer I monitor, predicts the S&P 500 Index will reach 2,300 by the end of May. That translates to an 11% gain over the next six months. Eisenstadt, for those of you who don’t know him, is the former research director at Value Line Inc., the famous New York investment firm. Though he retired in 2009, after 63 years at that firm, he continues to perfect a complex econometric model that generates six-month forecasts for the benchmark S&P 500 SPX, +0.17% of the largest U.S. companies. To appreciate how good his model is, consider what its forecast was six months ago — when the S&P 500 stood at 1,924. At the time, investors were expecting a big summer correction, but Eisenstadt’s model was forecasting that the index would surpass 2,100 by the beginning of December. As fate would have it, the market has made it “only” to 2,074. But I don’t think any of Eisenstadt’s followers are complaining. On the contrary, in the messy world of stock market predictions, Eisenstadt’s has to be graded remarkably accurate. Though Eisenstadt’s model is not perfect, its track record has been impressive statistically. He reports an R-squared of 0.36 for his model since the early 1950s, which means that it has been able to explain 36% of the variation in six-month changes in the S&P 500. Eisenstadt’s model is proprietary, so we don’t know its inputs. He says it’s constructed of indicators that his seven decades of research have shown to be significantly correlated with the market’s level six months into the future. He then uses complex statistical techniques to synthesize those individual indicators into a comprehensive model. In an email, Eisenstadt did say that the inputs to the model that played the biggest role in its current bullishness are low interest rates and the stock market’s recent strength. A forecast this bullish may surprise you, given that the market is already richly valued — or, if you believe certain valuation models, overvalued. But it’s worth remembering that valuation is primarily concerned with the long term. It exerts only a small gravitational force on the short-term direction. A great metaphor for understanding this comes from Ben Inker, co-head of the asset-allocation team at Boston-based money management firm GMO. He likens the market to a leaf in a hurricane, with the Earth representing the market’s underlying fundamental value. “You have no idea where the leaf will be a minute or an hour from now,” he says. “But, eventually, gravity will win out, and it will land on the ground.” So there is no necessary conflict between believing, on the one hand, that the U.S. stock market does not represent great long-term value, and on the other hand, thinking like Eisenstadt that the market will perform well over the next six months.
This guy is on cnbc about 2-3 times a month... Tom Lee: 2015 will be even better than 2014 Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex 3 Hours AgoCNBC.com 49 SHARES 9 COMMENTSS&P 500 to reach 2,325 by YE 2015," he wrote in a Thursday morning note to clients. With the S&P hitting 2,050 on Thursday, a close of 2,325 would represent a rally of more than 13 percent from current levels. That would easily best this year's 10.6 percent rally. So how does Lee, the current head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and former equity strategist at JPMorgan, reach that target? "What we're picturing is that earnings growth is around 7 percent or better, and we see the P/E expand," meaning that investors will pay more for each dollar of earnings even as earnings rise, he explained Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." The reason this is a surprising take is that market valuations have already risen considerably, such that the S&P's forward price-earnings ratio is now a bit above historical averages. But that doesn't worry Lee. "I know people are going to say, 'Hey, the P/E expansion's over, because we're already six years in and the market's at 16 times forward [earnings].' The reality is, if you look at every bull market that's lasted at least four years P/Es expand more than one turn a year until the bull market peaks," he said. "Hey, the market feels expensive, but the P/Es' going to keep going up until there's a recession." Read MoreStock rally could depend on oil pressure Scott Mlyn | CNBC Tom Lee And Lee isn't concerned about the fact that the Federal Reserve is looking to raise short-term rate targets in 2015. "When the Fed begins to tighten and it's really essentially a confirmation of a reflation signal, the stock market actually takes those quite well," he said. "There's six or seven episodes in the last 50 years when the Fed tightening has led to the markets actually rallying, and we think that's going to be the case [this year] as well." Known as one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, Lee predicted in 2013 that the S&P 500 would rise to 2,075 by the end of 2014—an out-of-consensus call that now looks pretty accurate. Similarly, he was the biggest bull on the Street in 2013, a year in which even his calls proved not bullish enough. Lee says that with so many people expecting a mild year of market gains, he's again looking the other way for a different result. "A lot of people are thinking next year's a low-return year because we've got disinflation, we've got lower oil and the problems in Europe and China," Lee observed. "And you know what? That's what consensus is, it's either going to be better or worse, and we think it's going to be better."
Another day another forecast showing predictions of a higher market.... Strategists on 2015: Up, up and away for stocks Patti Domm | @pattidomm 9 Hours AgoCNBC.com 98 SHARES 41 COMMENTSFed, falling oil prices and a soft global economy. Their median forecast is for a 7.1 percent gain in the S&P 500 in 2015, over Friday's close of 2,070. The low forecasts are from Goldman Sachs and Barclays at 2,100, and the high targets are RBC and Fundstrat at 2,325. The S&P 500 is up about 12 percent for 2014 so far, and a number of strategists raised their views as the year progressed. The S&P 500 has gained 206 percent since its March 2009 low. Getty Images Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 2015 marks the start of a significant change in the investment environment where the Fed at some point will no longer be holding rates at zero, but other globalcentral banks will continue to pump stimulus. That is expected to create turbulence, as the dollar rises and markets adjust to higher rates. Read MoreTop business stories of 2014 Goldman analysts expect a "benign" reaction to the first Fed rate hike and they see stocks moving higher in the first half. But stocks could lose traction in the second half, as earnings contract as a result of Fed tightening, they wrote in their 2015 outlook. "I think next year is going to be all about these moving parts. The cross currents for global liquidity are changing a lot of the relationships that have been in play for the last four years," said Gina Martin Adams, institutional equities strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. "Active asset managers will see some divergences develop. All boats will no longer be lifted by the rising tide." Thomas Lee is among the forecasters with the highest targets. "I think stocks are going to do well in the end of this year, and I think people are going to start thinking about next year, and they're going to want to be positioned," said Lee, founder and strategist of Fundstrat Global Advisors. "They have various reasons to be optimistic about next year, everything from the gasoline dividend to QE taking place in Europe and Japan." Strategists say next year's gains could also be impacted by the strength of the December rally. Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist at Citigroup, said part of the market's recent surge is due to short covering. His target is 2,200 for 2015. "We think some of the rally stuff we're getting is borrowing from next year," he said. Read MoreInvestors expect higher stocks in 2015 Adams expects the S&P to end 2015 at 2,222, and she sees earnings helping boost gains. "Throughout this last earnings season and even through the last couple of months, analysts have given up on earnings prospects, anything with international exposure, energy exposure," she said. She expects earnings growth of about 7 percent for 2015. "Earnings estimates for the next four quarters actually look achievable. Given how much they slashed and burned their expectations for 2015 earnings growth, they look achievable. ... Next year is really an earnings story." Fourth-quarter earnings could be a "kitchen sink" type of quarter, especially for energy companies and those that might have been hit by a rising dollar or weak international markets. "I expect it to be rough," Adams said, adding she sees a volatile first quarter for the market. "Really, the first quarter will be the first quarter where we see no QE at the Fed and potentially new QE (quantitative easing) from the ECB (European Central Bank)." Levkovich said the market can move higher even with Fed rate hikes next year, and financial stocks should ultimately benefit. He said he favors tech, and he is watching the beaten down energy sector for opportunities at some point. Some oil analysts expect prices to bottom when demand drops at the end of the winter, or even later. "There's so much pain in the energy trade already, it may not be (a hurdle) anymore," said Levkovich. Stocks had been tethered to falling oil prices earlier in the month. Some strategists are already recommending the energy sector, down 20 percent since June when oil peaked. The sector gained 9 percent last week, as investors jumped in. Morgan Stanley is recommending "overweight" and it sees a bottoming in crude in the second quarter of 2015. Energy stocks tend to bottom two months before earnings revisions bottom, Morgan Stanley analysts noted. Adams said the very source of some pain for the market could actually turn into a positive in the year ahead—the weakness in Europe and China. Lee agreed. "Europe is benefiting from lower oil and you also have the QE. I think international exposure is OK. I think that's an opportunity," he said. Lee said a big story for the next year could be the reset of consumer balance sheets. He said now that seven years have passed since the first major wave of foreclosures, consumers who faced it could see their credit scores improve. Lee said his top pick for 2015 is tech, and he also likes consumer discretionary and financials. Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management hasn't yet published a 2015 outlook, but he sees the S&P 500 rising to 2,200 to 2,250. "Another good, but not a great year," he said. "I think stocks will beat cash. Stocks will beat bonds. Stocks will beat commodities, and stocks will beat inflation," said Doll. He likened the bull market to a baseball game, putting it at the sixth inning in terms of duration, and the seventh inning in terms of price. "We're past the half way mark. Stocks have doubled. They're not going to double again," he said. Read MoreBlackrock's Rosenberg: Stocks will beat bonds in 2015 Wall Street S&P 500 targets for 2015: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2,200 Barclays 2,100 BMO 2,250 Citigroup 2,200 Credit Suisse 2,200 Deutsche Bank 2,150 Goldman Sachs 2,100 JPMorgan Chase 2,250 Morgan Stanley 2,275 Oppenheimer 2,311 RBC 2,325 UBS 2,225 Wells Fargo 2,222 BlackRock 2,160 Fundstrat Global Advisors 2,325
Yes this guy says an 11% gain in 2015 Yes, no dips or down forecasts, just up and up.... Expect another good year for stocks in 2015: Darst Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere 50 Mins AgoCNBC.com 24 SHARES 2 COMMENTSS&P 500 could have a total return of 11 percent next year, including a nearly 2 percent dividend, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's senior advisor said Wednesday, a day after a fifth-straight session of gains on Wall Street. Historically, the S&P has had a total yearly return of nearly 8 percent, David Darst noted during a interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "You'll see earnings rise about 7 percent this [coming] year and another 7 percent in 2016. And then you get a small expansion in the P/E [price-to-earnings ratio] multiple from 16.4 to 16.9, times $134 [in earnings] gives you 2,275 on the S&P 500," Darst said. Both the S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Averageclosed Tuesday at record highs, their 51st and 36th respectively this year. The Dow also broke through and finished above 18,000 for the first time ever. Read MoreBuying stocks now:The world's easiest trade? For 2014, the Dow was up nearly 9 percent and the S&P was up more than 12 percent as of Tuesday's close, excluding dividends. The reason for that difference, Darst said, comes down to two stocks. "The Dow has only 30 stocks ... and it's been dragged down by Chevronand IBM this year." As of Tuesday's close, shares of Chevron were down nearly 9 percent and IBM was down 13.5 percent for 2014.
Tom Lee is back again on cnbc with the same bullish call on higher Stock market prices, calling for S $ P 2325. ‘Frustration’ will drive stocks higher: Tom Lee Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex 20 Mins AgoCNBC.com 4 SHARES 10 COMMENTSOptions Action." The strategist, who has a year-end S&P 500 target of 2,325, says the already-long length of the bull market has caused considerable investor angst. But that doesn't mean the run is done. "This is a bull market that's been around for a long time, and I think it's frustrating people because it's been hard to beat and it's been volatile," Lee said, referring to the plight of active managers attempting to pick stocks that will beat the broad market. "I think that type of frustration makes it easier for the market to surprise to the upside," he added. In addition, the promise of more capital expenditure in the year ahead bolsters Lee's hope. "CapEx is a story that eventually has to turn. Companies can't let assets deplete forever, and accumulated depreciation to gross plant is now over 50 percent in the S&P for the first time in history," he said. Read MoreIt's over! Stocks and oil may finally break up Scott Mlyn | CNBC Tom Lee Because he is so bullish, Lee recommends that investors shift from defensive sectors like utilities to more cyclical sectors like technology, as well as financial and energy names. "I think the recovery might actually have some better foundations, and I think we're seeing it in the labor market. So you know—I have my fingers crossed." Still, even if the market rally becomes a more traditional one with the cyclical sectors leading, that won't necessarily solve the problem of active managers, according to Sterne Agee chief market technician Carter Worth. "The S&P has been very hard to beat lately—in fact, active managers had their worst year in some 25 years—as the average stock is not performing in line with the aggregate," Worth said. "I think that's going to be an issue again this year no matter what the S&P does. There's going to be a performance problem."