Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. GOOG:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/google-time-to-buy-the-stock-1417846206?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_3

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GOOG.NAS?symbol=GOOG&form=PRFISB

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

    Trade:
    With GOOG at 525.26
    June 470/465 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
    Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 192 days or 16.5% annualized
    Prob = 80%
    Expectation = .80(40) - .17(460) - .03(230) = 32.00 - 78.2 - 6.9 = -53.1
    Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
    348.75.............(460.00)................-92.00%
    407.83.............(460.00)................-92.00%
    465.00.............(460.00)................-92.00%
    469.60..................0.00....................0.00%
    470.00.................40.00...................8.70%
    470.01.................40.00...................8.70%
    532.20.................40.00...................8.70%
    594.39.................40.00...................8.70%
    656.58.................40.00...................8.70%
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2014
    #891     Dec 8, 2014
  2. CBST:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-dives-superbug-chase-cubist-131120456.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CBST Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    TRADE:
    Sell Jan '16 100 put and buy Jan'16 90 put for a net credit of $50

    Price................Profit / Loss.........ROM %
    67.50...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
    78.68...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
    90.00...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
    90.45...............(905.30)..........-90.53%
    99.50....................0.00..............0.00%
    100.00................50.00..............5.00%
    102.21................50.00..............5.00%
    113.98................50.00..............5.00%
    125.75................50.00..............5.00%

    MRK:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRK

    Sell Jun 55 put and buy Jun 50 put for a net credit of $70

    Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
    37.50...............(430.00)............-86.00%
    45.15...............(430.00)............-86.00%
    50.00...............(430.00)............-86.00%
    53.20...............(110.20)............-22.04%
    54.30....................0.00................0.00%
    55.00..................70.00...............16.00%
    61.25..................70.00...............16.00%
    69.30..................70.00...............16.00%
    77.35..................70.00...............16.00%
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2014
    #892     Dec 9, 2014
  3. GILD:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/...is-cheap-1418302877?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GILD.NAS?symbol=GILD&form=PRFISB

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-faces-lawsuit-over-hepatitis-225929555.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild

    Trade:
    with GILD at 105.62
    May 87.5/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
    Yield = 45/205 = 22% in 155 days or 52% annualized
    Prob = 79%
    Expectation = .79(45) - .17(205) - .04(103) = 35.6 - 34.8 - 4.1 = -3

    Price..............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
    65.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
    75.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
    85.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
    87.05.......................0.00.....................0.00%
    87.50.....................45.00..................22.00%
    90.00.....................45.00..................22.00%
    105.00...................45.00..................22.00%
    115.00...................45.00..................22.00%
    125.00...................45.00..................22.00%
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2014
    #893     Dec 11, 2014
  4. ORCL:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-oracles-earnings-2014-12-16?siteid=yhoof2

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/157356/will-oracle-orcl-disappoint-this-earnings-season

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ORCL

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.ORCL.NYS?symbol=ORCL&form=PRFISB

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ORCL Interactive#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"}

    Trade:
    with ORCL at 40.63
    Jan '16 25/23 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
    Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 393 days or 7.5% annualized
    Prob = 94%
    Expectation = .94(15) - .03(185) - .03(93) = 14.1 -5.6 - 2.8 = 5.7

    Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
    17.00..........(185.00).............-92.50%
    23.00..........(185.00).............-92.50%
    23.69..........(116.40).............-58.20%
    24.85...............0.00................0.00%
    25.00.............15.00................8.10%
    30.00.............15.00................8.10%
    35.00.............15.00................8.10%
    40.00.............15.00................8.10%
    55.00.............15.00................8.10%
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2014
    #894     Dec 17, 2014
  5. CVX:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntob...s-analysis-replaces-emotion/?partner=yahootix

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2763965-whats-a-fair-price-for-chevron

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CVX.NYS?symbol=CVX&form=PRFISB

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVX

    Trade:
    with CVX at 112.03
    Jun 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $34.
    Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 178 days or 15% annualized
    Prob = 94%
    Expectation = .94(34) - .03(466) - .03(233) = 31.96 - 13.98 - 6.99 = 11

    Price............Profit / Loss........ROM %
    60.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
    75.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
    80.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
    84.66..................0.00..................0.00%
    85.00................34.00..................7.30%
    90.00................34.00..................7.30%
    100.00..............34.00..................7.30%
    120.00..............34.00..................7.30%
    140.00..............34.00..................7.30%
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2014
    #895     Dec 22, 2014
  6. SHLD:
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-12-04/sears-loss-widens-to-548-million-as-sales-keep-sliding

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2773345-sears-the-lampert-report

    http://investorplace.com/2014/12/sears-stock-shld-layaways/#.VJlNZREDY

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHLD Interactive#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"}

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.SHLD.NAS?symbol=SHLD&form=PRFISB

    Trade:
    with SHLD at 33.96
    March 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $41
    Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 86 days or 38% annualized
    Prob = 83%

    Price.............Profit / Loss............ROM %
    25.00................41.00....................8.90%
    35.00................41.00....................8.90%
    40.00................41.00....................8.90%
    45.00................41.00....................8.90%
    45.41..................0.00....................0.00%
    47.50..............(212.80)...............-42.56%
    50.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
    55.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
    60.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
     
    #896     Dec 23, 2014
  7. MCD:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-mcdonalds-mcd-bear-060006500.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD

    Trade:
    With MCD at 93.89
    Mar 100/105 bear call spread for a net credit of $71
    Yield = 71/429 = 16.6% in 86 days or 70% annualized
    Prob = 73%

    Price...........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
    70.00..............71.00...................14.20%
    80.00..............71.00...................14.20%
    90.00..............71.00...................14.20%
    100.00.............71.00..................14.20%
    100.71...............0.00....................0.00%
    105.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
    110.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
    120.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
    130.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
     
    #897     Dec 23, 2014
  8. CPB:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-tops-street-1q-forecasts-122802150.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/1297...-of-campbell-soup.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    http://news.investors.com/121714-73...s-boost.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-soup-continue-hold-investor-164504457.html

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CPB.NYS?symbol=CPB&form=PRFISB

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CPB Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cpb

    Trade:
    With CPB at 44.83
    Jan '16 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $100
    Yield = 100/400 = 25% in 383 days or 23.8% annualized
    Prob = 91%
    Expectation = .91(100) - .01(400) - .08(200) = 91 - 4 - 16 = 71

    Price...........Profit / Loss........ROM %
    22.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
    29.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
    30.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
    34.00................0.00.................0.00%
    35.00.............100.00...............25.00%
    40.00.............100.00...............25.00%
    45.00.............100.00...............25.00%
    50.00.............100.00...............25.00%
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2014
    #898     Dec 27, 2014
  9. DDD:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-printing-stocks-surge-2015-183806637.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-systems-wins-2014-design-140000270.html

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DDD.NYS?symbol=DDD&form=PRFISB

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DDD
    (look out for HPQ and GE)


    Trade:
    With DDD at 32.20
    Aug 30/32 bull call spread for a net debit of $134
    Yield = 66/134 = 49% in 234 days or 77% annualized

    Price............Profit / Loss........ROI %
    22.50.............(134.00).........-100.00%
    25.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
    29.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
    30.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
    31.34..................0.00...............0.00%
    32.00................66.00..............49.25%
    33.00................66.00..............49.25%
    36.00................66.00..............49.25%
    40.00................66.00..............49.25%
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2014
    #899     Dec 29, 2014
  10. PCG:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pg-e-corp-strong-buy-224110540.html
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PCG Key Statistics
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLU
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PCG Competitors
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.PCG.NYS?symbol=PCG&form=PRFISB
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=PCG Headlines
    http://www.pgecurrents.com/2014/02/...gins-inline-inspection-of-peninsula-pipeline/
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCG Interactive#

    PCG pays a 3.5% dividend

    TRADE:
    With PCG at 53.34
    June 40/37 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% in 166 days or 20% annualized
    Prob = 98%
    Expectation = .98(25) - .01(275) - .01(138) = 24.5 - 2.75 - 1.38 = 20

    Price..............Profit / Loss..............ROM %
    30.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
    35.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
    37.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
    39.75....................0.00......................0.00%
    40.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
    45.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
    50.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
    55.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
    60.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2015
    #900     Jan 3, 2015