Market should keep falling, sell rallies, but Copper is one of those weird markets, takes few attempts to keep added on trades cause it jumps around so much, weekly rallies stronger to sell than dailies. When I see markets are looking like they have short term counter-trend moves might occur, I don't get out of my long term position, I do either credit spreads or sell options, just to make a little more. It be breaking 2.72 eventually.
It appears as though the 3 dollar break also had an effect on the silver and gold markets.....they dropped as well. I think we are now below the cost of production....or at least close to it.
Anyone notice that the Shanghai stock market has rallied almost 20% in a single month ? So they are anticipating a Chinese recovery ?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ig...to-the-us-2014-12-05?link=MW_home_latest_news Copper is on traders minds as well as the Shanghai stock index. What's up with that ? This whole notion of a huge Chinese recovery seems phony to me.
Copper broke through 2.72 area, I remain short and Market should keep falling, selling rallies, next support is gap on Monthly of July 2009 at 2.62. This is one of the longest commodity trades of my life, almost four years of rollovers, but have added a couple times, all but one reached first target and just keeping protective stops at breakeven.
I see the longer term positive historical correlators with Copper that make solid fundamental sense - currencies associated with mining countries, mining stocks, other industrial metals; falling by the wayside as of late. Using the LME Copper product suite and the Comex futures contract as a baseline comparator I see statistically strong ten and five year correlations fading away fast on two year and shorter time frame comparisons. Which is a bit unsettling to me because Copper is such a superb relative value benchmark for a wide range of equities and commodities.
You are a big swinging dick and never let anyone tell you otherwise. Submit your CV to Glencore / one of the mysterious Swiss firms pronto IMHO.
Thanks, but I think not, I am stubborn but have now back tested my method most markets fifty years back that were active, many markets came about in 80's. Am sure like you know what your methods can do as you been profitable every year for how long? 10-20 years? I read a book once by...Weist is it? "You Can't Lose Trading Commodities"? he had some premise that if price came down by so much you buy a contract, true averaging down, and I believe you increased size at every level going down? He had some wild 156 out of 157 trades profitable and you would keep doing rollovers. Actually, that's where I got the idea of how to trade long term, but other idea was I never heard of big business filing bankruptcy/going out of business using the futures markets to hedge, like ADM. And Weist never did currencies or financials, but unlike how he did it, my methods looks over past nine years and sometimes twenty years, like is US Dollar. After awhile you don't notice much of huge intra move drawdowns so long as they are away from where I get in. Bone, what's been your longest trade idea?