IBM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-raised-bets-visa-212500915.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick...s-disappoint-troubled-giant/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-department-energy-selects-ibm-150400071.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2014/11/13/will-ibm-rise-again/?partner=yahootix http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm Trade: With IBM at 164.16 April 140/135 bull put spread for a net credit of $37 Yield = 37/463 = 8% in 151 days or 19.3% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(37) - .02(463) - .03(232) = 35.2 - 9.3 - 7.0 =18.9 Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 100.00.........(463.00).............-92.60% 120.00.........(463.00).............-92.60% 135.00.........(463.00).............-92.60% 139.63..............0.00.................0.00% 140.00............37.00.................8.00% 150.00............37.00.................8.00% 164.16............37.00.................8.00% 175.00............37.00.................8.00%
CREE: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1295...mponents-business.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CREE+Key+Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CREE.NAS?symbol=CREE&form=PRFISB http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterde...t-another-efficient-led-light-bulb-from-cree/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CREE http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CREE Basic Chart#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"} Trade: With CREE at 35.57 April 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.3% in 150 days or 12.6% annualized Prob = 92% Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 15.00..........(475.00)................-95.00% 20.00..........(475.00)................-95.00% 20.65..........(409.60)................-81.92% 24.75...............0.00....................0.00% 25.00..............25.00...................5.30% 30.00..............25.00...................5.30% 35.00..............25.00...................5.30% 40.00..............25.00...................5.30% 45.00..............25.00...................5.30%
TSLA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-shares-skid-morgan-192002266.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/08/08/a-manufacturing-lesson-from-tesla-motors/ http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-confirms-nevada-to-get-battery-factory-1409871734 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TSLA.NAS?symbol=TSLA&form=PRFISB http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tsla Trade: With TSLA at 248.71 Sell Jun 320 call and buy Jun 325 call for a net credit of $41 Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 210 days or 15.5% annualized Prob = 86% Expectation = .86(41) - .13(320) - .01(160) = 35.26 - 41.6 - 1.6 = -8 Price...............Profit / Loss..........ROM % 186.53................41.00.................8.90% 228.70................41.00.................8.90% 273.09................41.00.................8.90% 317.48................41.00.................8.90% 320.00................41.00.................8.90% 320.41..................0.00.................0.00% 325.00..............(459.00)............-91.80% 361.86..............(459.00)............-91.80% 406.25..............(459.00)............-91.80% An alternate trade: Jun 150/145 bull put spread for a net credit of $65 Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 210 days or 25.97% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(65) - .03(435) - .01(218) = 62.4 - 13.05 - 2.18 = 47.2 Price..................Profit / Loss.................ROM % 108.75.................(435.00).....................-87.00% 145.00.................(435.00).....................-87.00% 147.54.................(180.60).....................-36.12% 149.35......................0.00.............................0.00% 150.00....................65.00........................14.90% 188.38....................65.00........................14.90% 229.22....................65.00........................14.90% 270.05....................65.00........................14.90% 310.89....................65.00........................14.90%
If I use as a denominator the amount of money I have deployed I am up 16.6%. YTD, If I use as a denominator the entire account I am up half that...because I am only half deployed. I have been waiting for things to be more settled before upping my deployment like: what the Fed will actually do and how the market will respond, especially bond prices, interest rates and inflation; I've been waiting for the S&P to pull back so I can get a test of support levels; waiting for earnings and projected earnings especially to settle etc. etc. WELL I should have known better than to expect a settled market to trade in as there is no such thing. Still, right now I'm waiting for a pull back in the S&P to set support levels. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY Lots-a-luck to me.
USO: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-164634248.html http://www.businessinsider.com/why-oil-price-keeps-dropping-2014-11 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cancel-thanksgiving-most-important-opec-145500131.html http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USO Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"} Trade: With USO at 28.74 Jul 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 234 days or 12.8% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(38) - .08(462) - .11(231) = 30.78 - 36.96 - 25.41 = -31.5 Price..............Profit / Loss...................ROM % 20.00...................38.00..........................8.20% 25.00...................38.00..........................8.20% 30.00...................38.00..........................8.20% 35.00...................38.00..........................8.20% 35.38.....................0.00.........................0.00% 38.51.................(312.70)....................-62.54% 40.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40% 45.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40% 50.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40%
MMM: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ow-the-stock-outperforms/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MMM Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.MMM.NYS?symbol=MMM&form=PRFISB http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-hits-52-week-high-190138533.html http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MMM Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mmm Trade: With MMM at 158.06 APR 170/175 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 141 days or 35.3% annualized Prob = 82% Expectation = .82(60) - .09(440) - .09(220) = 49.2 - 39.6 - 19.8 = -10 Price...........Profit / Loss.......ROM % 120.00.............60.00..............13.60% 140.00.............60.00..............13.60% 160.00.............60.00..............13.60% 170.00.............60.00..............13.60% 170.60...............0.00...............0.00% 175.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00% 180.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00% 190.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00% 200.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00% Alternate trade: APR 145/140 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.36% or 32% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(55) - .06(445) - .07(223) = 47.85 - 26.7 - 15.6 = 5.6 Price..............Profit / Loss........ROM % 105.00..............(445.00)............-89.00% 122.77..............(445.00)............-89.00% 140.00..............(445.00)............-89.00% 141.47..............(298.10)............-59.62% 144.45...................0.00................0.00% 145.00.................55.00...............12.36% 160.17.................55.00...............12.36% 178.87.................55.00...............12.36% 197.58.................55.00...............12.36%
AMZN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazons-robot-army-ready-ship-050244613.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amzn http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.AMZN.NAS?symbol=AMZN&form=PRFISB http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMZN Key Statistics Trade: With AMZN at 338.64 Feb 285/280 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 80 days or 39.7% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(40) - .05(460) - .02(230) = 37.2 - 23 - 5 = 9.2 Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 210.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00% 250.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00% 280.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00% 284.60................0.00..............0.00% 285.00..............40.00..............8.00% 295.00..............40.00..............8.00% 338.64..............40.00..............8.00%
STAA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-staar-staa-060014979.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=STAA Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=STAA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=staa TRADE: with STAA at 9.03 June 10/12.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $80 Yield = 80/170 = 47% in 197 days or 87% annualized Prob = 68% Expectation = .68(80) - .20(170) - .12(85) = 54.4 - 34 - 10.2 = 10.3 Price............Profit / Loss.........ROM % 6.50.................80.00.................47.00% 8.50.................80.00.................47.00% 10.00...............80.00.................47.00% 10.26...............54.00.................21.60% 10.80.................0.00..................0.00% 12.05............(124.80)...............-49.92% 12.50............(170.00)...............-68.00% 13.50............(170.00)...............-68.00% 15.50............(170.00)...............-68.00%
MKC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mccormick-mkc-upgraded-strong-buy-204002317.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MKC Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.MKC.NYS?symbol=MKC&form=PRFISB http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mkc Trade: with MKC at 73.89 June 65/60 bull put spread for a net credit of $65 Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 197 days or 27.7% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(65) - .04(435) - .09(218) = 56.6 - 17.4 - 19.6 = 19.6 Price...........Profit / Loss.............ROM % 45.00............(435.00).................-87.00% 54.09............(435.00).................-87.00% 60.00............(435.00).................-87.00% 63.66............(69.20)...................-13.84% 64.35...............0.00.......................0.00% 65.00.............65.00......................14.90% 73.23.............65.00......................14.90% 82.79.............65.00......................14.90% 92.36.............65.00......................14.90%