Potential NQ Targets

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by dbphoenix, Sep 29, 2014.

  1. k p

    k p

    Question if I may. The 1st RET happens essentially within the pre-market range, so was this a concern? Of course each subsequent retrace was just as good on the way down, but from looking at a narrow view, price tried to go higher after the open, and it failed, but then dropped back into the range.

    From a longer term perspective as you pointed out, having hit the top of this channel (which is within the bigger channel of the past year), were you therefore more inclined to look for any reason to get into a short, and hence this range was of no concern to the bigger picture? Other days, dropping back into a pre-market range would I think require waiting for an exit first, so did context today perhaps override this? Or perhaps I'm putting too much emphasis on this pre-market range all together.

    (Of course even before the pre-market range formed, price tried going higher and couldn't, instead settling into this range, so this second attempt to go higher after exiting this range and failing was essentially a double top and failure to go higher twice... so this may also add to the go-ahead to short within this range)

    I guess I'm just asking if there was some order to what you might have been looking at today and if one thing would take precedence over another.
     
    #221     Nov 21, 2014
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    The first tradeable retracement takes place after the double top and the break of the DL, at 0941. If by "range" you're referring to 0900 to 0920, it wasn't particularly important since it was so brief. The uptrend since 0620 took precedence.

    As for "looking for any reason to get into a short", the double top and break of the DL were more than sufficient, particularly since they took place at the top of the channel. Trade the extremes.
     
    #222     Nov 21, 2014
  3. k p

    k p

    The range I was referring to I actually saw as a bit wider, from an hour before the open, to essentially a couple of minutes before price spiked up 2 minutes before the open. Here is a a crop from my chart today with that range marked in. The short you mention essentially happens at "F" where I outline this as well. I waited until G to short.

    Thanks for the additional rationale. Trading at the extremes... just beautiful! (once you get the extremes right of course!)
     
    #223     Nov 21, 2014
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    But you're ignoring context.
     
    #224     Nov 21, 2014
  5. k p

    k p

    Yes.. absolutely right... the context does trump that range.
     
    #225     Nov 21, 2014
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Getting back to this thread . . .

    Posted Dec 16th:

    [​IMG]

    Posted last week:

    [​IMG]

    The last posting was in October, when we were at 4000. We of course reached the upper limit of the channel and U-turned for the mean, illustrated by the first chart, above.

    Current potential target: 4125.
     
    #226     Jan 2, 2015
  7. tupapa

    tupapa

    DB, seeing as today price broke below the mean, do you stay short and avoid looking for longs until we reach the lower trendline??
     
    #227     Jan 6, 2015
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I have no way of knowing what price will do from this point forward.
     
    #228     Jan 6, 2015
    fortydraws likes this.