Small Cap Index IJR and Small Cap Growth SCG both continued to show weakness and have short term negative number lines from today’s activity. 20 Year Treasury TLT had a short term positive signal tonight. Last positive signal was on 10/7. Consumer Discretionary XLY confirmed the 30 day number line today. First time since 6/3.
Gold has failed the monthly and QTR A downs, but is still confirmed negative by my numbers. Silver reset on Tuesday for me. GDX miners also have reset this week and confirmed a monthly A up (late cycle though).
Hello CP I’ll show you a bit of my GLD spreadsheet and you can see my numbers and rational. The short term number lines turned negative on August 13th and the 30 day confirmed on the 21st. Since then the 30 day has been terrible and the 5 day and Mo Re-set have been very weak. The first leg up from 10/3 to 10/21 of 4.72% got the 5 and reset to 4 and 4 on the 16th. The current leg up beginning on the 5th is up 4.62% to date but the 5 and reset have been weaker than the previous up move. You can also see how the 30 day has waxed and waned but all in strong negative numbers. It appears to be once again getting weaker. My monthly A Down is 110.88 so I had a MAD on the 5th. But, my Monthly A Up is 113.80 so I had a MAU on the 18th. I say that’s just chart manipulation and the number lines tell the true story: Weakness.
Thanks Robert. I like seeing how others are viewing things, since I'm still getting the hang of ACD there's always a chance I am missing or misreading something. Indeed there has been no strength in the short term number lines since the QTR/monthly failures. I had not taken note of that. I should also note that due to a bad post edit my earlier post incorrectly states that GDX has reset for me when it fact it has not. I have it at a -3.
I took another look at precious metals this weekend. Gold confirmed negative, above the monthly A up 30 day: -13 monthly: -4 5 day: +2 Silver 30 day: -3 monthly: +3 5 day: +3 Miners (GDX) confirmed negative, above monthly A up 30 day: -2 monthly: +3 5 day: +1 Junior Miners confirmed negative, above the monthly A up 30 day: -11 monthly: -3 5 day: 0 GLD (I track this in addition to GC as an experiment) confirmed negative 30 day: -18 monthly: -7 5 day: -5 There has been some strength seen by virtue of the monthly A ups, however they are late cycle and are not being confirmed by the monthly number lines. A couple of 5 days triggered +5 on Thursday but quickly fell back below the trigger level on Friday. Confirmed negative NL's in everything but Silver. I could see someone making a case that this data could support fading this up move. As a macro trader I lean on monthly levels for stops, but since everything but Silver is above those levels I'll sit this out for now.
It's going to be extremely difficult to get gold and silver to rally with the Dollar as strong as it is. This dollar move is epic.
Hello fellow HomeGamers, A few end of week number lines with monthly, quarterly and yearly stats of a few broad market ETF and related Mutual Funds. (The symbols follow the attached.) DIA: Short term NL's confirmed positive on the 10/27/14 and 30 day on 11/7/14. Monthly AU on the 14th and a 52 week high on Friday. SPY: Finally confirmed short term on Monday and 30 day a few days later. DIA was way ahead SPY on this move. IJR: Confirmed short term negative on the 19th. IJK: 30 day confirmed positive on 11/4/14 and short term was later on the 20th. IJT: Short term negative on the 19th. IVE: Short term positive on the 18th and the 30 day joined on the 20th. KBE: 30 day confirmed positive on Friday but short terms haven’t shown that much strength. It has bounced off my MAU at 33.81 three times. I don’t see steam here. XLY: Both short term and 30 day confirmed positive on the Thursday. Had a MAU on Friday and also a new 52 week high. XLP: Short term NL’s confirmed positive on 10/21/14 and 30 day on 11/5/14. XLE: 30 negative confirmed on 10/8/14. XLB: Short term neutral on Tuesday (was negative). 30 day negative on 9/9/14. XLF: Short term positive on Thursday and 30 day on Friday. 52 week high on Friday but bumping up against the MAU. XLI: Short term positive on the 18th and the 30 day on the 19th. MAU a few days before and a 52 week high on Friday. IYR: Short term neutral and 30 day positive since 10/28/14. XLK: Short term positive on Wednesday and 30 day confirmed on 10/28/14. XLU: Short term NL’s confirmed positive on 10/20/14 and 30 day on 11/6/14. JJC: Short term neutral on the 18th and the confirmed positive from 10/13/14 has weakened to a 1. USO: But this time it’s different! Short term positive on the 17th and that’s the first one in a long time. Additionally, all the little bases and small leg ups since Mid June have not had positive short term numbers. The 30 day hit a 10 on Thursday but fell back to a 7 on Friday. A little rally with some secret sauce steam here wouldn't surprise me. UNG: Short term NL’s confirmed positive on 10/29/14 and 30 day the next day. GLD: Short term negative on 8/14/14 and 30 day on 8/21/14. SLX: Short term negative on 8/15/14 and 30 day on 8/25/14. OIH: 30 day negative since 8/12/14. IEF: Short term negative on the 12th and 30 day on the 18th TLT: Short term positive on the 10th with the 30 day working off negative numbers and finishing Friday at 0. VXX: Short term negative on Tuesday, the 18th. XIV: Short term positive on the 12th and 30 day on the 19th.