-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.valleygreeninn.com/ I take an early morning walk along this 165 year old inn most mornings weather permitting. I have my coffee and read the WSJ on the veranda then head home which is nearby The view is beautifull and changes colors with the seasons which helps to mitigate the recent market doldrums that the WSJ is reporting So do the young ladies jogging cheers john
HCI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-hci-group-hci-050042376.html http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/10/16/hurricane-gonzalo-bermuda/17345911/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HCI Key Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hci http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HCI&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with HCI at 46.80 APR 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 181 days or 12.9% annualized Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 20.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00% 25.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00% 30.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00% 34.70...............0.00..................0.00% 35.00.............30.00..................6.40% 40.00.............30.00..................6.40% 45.00.............30.00..................6.40% 50.00.............30.00..................6.40% 55.00.............30.00..................6.40%
Have you considered putting on trades in TZA? or stocks with small spreads on the strikes? Unless I'm mistaken, on the TZA Iron Condors with 0.50 widths on either leg, if you can collect between $30+ in credits, then over time if the odds play out you'll be up.
You mean like: TZA: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=TZA&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Nov 14/13:20/21 iron condor for a net credit of $24 Yield = 24/76 = 31.6% in 34 days or 300% annualized Prob = ?? Price..........Profit / Loss............ROM % 9.00..............(76.00).................-76.00% 12.00............(76.00).................-76.00% 13.00............(76.00).................-76.00% 13.76..............0.00......................0.00% 14.00.............24.00....................31.60% 16.25.............24.00....................31.60% 19.58.............24.00....................31.60% 20.00.............24.00....................31.60% 20.24..............0.00......................0.00% 21.00...........(76.00)..................-76.00% 25.00...........(76.00)..................-76.00% It's a little complex and in fact when I tried to submit that combo in OptionsXpress it froze the software. I tried again and it rejected that order...saying it was unable to submit the order. Actually I think I have tried this before and they simply won't take that combo or any variation thereof. To get it submitted I would probably have to talk to a rep. When talking to a rep I have a hard time getting them to understand my simpler trades and I am afraid they would say..."I'll have to get back to you" and I would never hear from them again. Thanks for the suggestion anyway.
This morning O'Xpress is working much better. Probably finished maintenance for the weekend. I WAS able to submit: Nov 14/12:20/22 iron condor for a net credit of $38 I'll leave it run and see if they are actually able to execute it. My max liability is 200 - 38 = 162 R/R = 162/38 = 4.3 As I read it the Prob = 56% (more or less)
MCD: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...send-diners-to-fancier-rivals.html?cmpid=yhoo http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...alds-fast-food-restaurants-earnings/17652697/ http://pressroom.consumerreports.org/pressroom/2014/07/my-entry-1.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-problems-mcdonalds-facing-us-132858446.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-tops-3q-net-income-120952579.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD Trade: with MCD at 91.01 Mar 97.5/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/218 = 14.7% in 148 days or 36% annualized Prob = 75% Expectation = .75(32) - .19(218) - .06(109) = 24 - 41 - 6 = -23 Price...........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 70.00...............32.00...............14.70% 80.00...............32.00...............14.70% 90.00...............32.00...............14.70% 97.50...............32.00...............14.70% 97.82.................0.00................0.00% 100.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 105.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 110.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 125.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
oldnemsis, You must have some great patience holding these. It's incredibly slow and any pop in IV, we're just waiting and waiting. Do you ever manage the winners on these? taking 30 cents on $2.5 wide doesn't leave much room to manage winning trades... How about loss criteria?
MCD: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...send-diners-to-fancier-rivals.html?cmpid=yhoo http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...alds-fast-food-restaurants-earnings/17652697/ http://pressroom.consumerreports.org/pressroom/2014/07/my-entry-1.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-problems-mcdonalds-facing-us-132858446.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-tops-3q-net-income-120952579.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD Trade: with MCD at 91.67 Mar 97.5/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/218 = 14.7% in 145 days or 37% annualized Prob = 75% Expectation = .75(32) - .19(218) - .06(109) = 24 - 41 - 6 = -23 Price...........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 70.00...............32.00...............14.70% 80.00...............32.00...............14.70% 90.00...............32.00...............14.70% 97.50...............32.00...............14.70% 97.82.................0.00................0.00% 100.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 105.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 110.00..........(218.00)............-87.20% 125.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
IBM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-international-business-machines-050031575.html http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-singing-the-blues-buffett-loses-nearly-1b-in-ibm-020935884.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-pay-1-5b-shed-102946736.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm Trade: With IBM at 162.08 Jan 180/185 bear call spread for a net credit of $28 Yield = 28/472 = 5.9% in 81 days or 27% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(28) - .06(472) - .04(236) = 25.2 - 28.3 - 9.4 = -12 Price............Profit / Loss.............ROM % 130.00.............28.00.....................5.90% 150.00.............28.00.....................5.90% 170.00.............28.00.....................5.90% 180.00.............28.00.....................5.90% 180.00...............0.00.....................0.00% 185.00..........(472.00).................-94.40% 190.00..........(472.00).................-94.40% 200.00..........(472.00).................-94.40% 210.00...........(472.00)................-94.40%
IBM ct'd http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm Longer term investment in IBM's declining fortunes: With IBM at 162.08 Jan '16 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.89% in 444 days or 8.1% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(45) - .11(455) - .02(227) = 39.2 - 50.1 - 4.54 = -15 This could be a good 'money parking' trade