Crude Oil - getting on & riding the horse UP or Down - East? No, West? Never!!

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by AfterLOS, Oct 17, 2014.

  1. dispensing with the liability of complaints that I'm taking over other people's threads, I'm going monastic, visitors welcome but its going to be a new level of RIDICUL-osity if someone comes to my rental and still complains that I took over the thread :):):D


    Still SHORT
    - YAWN (now @ close to 83)

    86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level

    YAWN


    continuation from here

    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/crude-below-90.285869/
     
  2. AfterLOS went unconscious ONCE during internship at ET very recently when reading thru' several posts discussing the "fundamental" aspects of Crude Oil. The sleep I fell into was so pronounced it was the deepest ever.

    So in this thread and in just a few paragraphs I will deliver a DEATH blow to "fundamental" anal-ysis once and for all using only CRUDE OIL as an example.

    stay tuned
     
  3. June-July 2008: geopolitical forces etc. were hammering the HERD into bellowing thru' a megaphone that Crude was going to go to the moon.

    Then the turn came - to them as a total surprise, nothing could explain it. Boom, 70% CRASH

    Russia invasion of Georgia big threat to oil production, pipeline thru' Georgia etc., etc., Oil gotta go up, right? But Oil bear-rallied from $90 to $130 but the new downtrend remained intact and continued. Very hard to shake off a new or developed trend

    ------------------------------------------


    June 2014:

    "Oil Thirst Rising As Iraq Unrest Boosts Prices… The unrest makes the reopening of a key pipeline from Kirkuk in Iraq to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey look even more elusive. This points to a systemic and seismic shift geopolitically." (USA Today)

    The integrity of another oil pipeline was in jeopardy. The major countries on the map remain in political conflict: Russia, Iraq, Iran, and Syria.

    But despite this perfect fundamental backdrop, the "oil thirst" ran dry. From the June 2014 peak, oil prices have plunged 23%. The 4% drop on October 14 was the market's "largest single-day decline in 2 years." (Washington Post)


    -------------------------------------------


    Bottom line:

    Wars, geopolitical unrest, pipelines threatened, oil fields burned and robbed ..... but PRICE didn't give a damn.


    Neither do I
     



  4. For next week ...... Still SHORT ..... $86.42 still remains as the TP full or partial level
     
  5. Alert: Going to plug in a 50% of position TP @ $78.10, play by ear for the rest of position

    $75-78 = huge Support = high probability TP zone (Oil hit low of $79.79 last week so real close to this support and must sense its there)
     

  6. SHORT continues unabated

    FULL position STOP lowered from $86.42 to $85.03
     



  7. End of week Oct 24th, 2014 update:

    No change in positions or STOP = $85.03
     

  8. My Proprietary Fibo Tech. delivers a target in the zone of the quoted text.

    = C O N F L U E N C E Z O N E

    but my STOP @ $85.03 is my MAIN focus
     
  9. changed STOP to = 82.49 for 60% of position

    old STOP = 85.03 still active for the remainder of position
     
  10. Crude's on the move north slowly but nice Macd bars and RSI at 75 degrees, so she gots power.

    My STOP will likely be taken out.

    Just as well - gotta pay for dinner and booze

    But hey, she might see my stop and turn around and head to Argentina

    That would be OK too
     
    #10     Oct 29, 2014