Hello JS..... I hope my personal disclaimer was thorough-I indeed know nothing about the type of trading you are involved in- I did hope to provoke your thinking though- I think Turveyd 's response to my somewhat rambling commentary made a good point "Daytrading is where the money is made big money and big losses at first ofcourse." The "big Losses" come after a trader over trades, trades too large, trades on emotion, doesn't trade his plan because he is trading due to his emotion- (discretionary) not his analytical discipline- and does not follow a strong position sizing approach. JMHO- Been there, done that personally- Again- mostly on swing trades- you will be capable of doing that so much quicker day trading! Again, I do not know Anything about the product you trade, NOR Daytrading ( sampled it a few times over the past 15 years on vacation days ) (although it is a micro of swing trading - Charts are simply wider) - but i do understand lack of discipline- failure to follow a well thought out strategy- the tendancy to not follow a disciplined well executed approach but to give in to discretionary trades . Impulse trading- and all the other mistakes one can make........ I was hoping to challenge you a bit- perhaps get a different perspective- You answered most of my questions- Thank you " ou will eliminate the overtrading - you will take only the best setups- Won't trade chop- How will you know when a transition from chop to trending occurs? How would you get on board? Those are good questions. Ranging and CHOP are different to me. Chop is generally lower highs and higher lows forming into a wedge of sorts. Range usually has respected extremes, and price is hovering around a certain price that traders are finding value at. Lately in the NQ, 3980 has been a rangy price point many times over the past 4 weeks. Yesterday was filled with wedges, CHOP to me. Not ranges. I cannot predict the transition. Generally I play a pullback after a range or chop break. If it trends, good. If not, try again. Are you asking so that I have this in my plan, or are you showing interest? I think this is where Art and science diverge- The question is - is this a good -higher- probability entry? I'm only asking You- I would point out that as a "new" trader, you would likely do best to have a limited arsenal- only target those trades - and stalk them- that have the highest probability of success- "questions here need to be answered pertaining to each setup. I do not have ALL of those answered in paper, but I know them. They should be on the paper as well? I think the exercise and the act of actually writing something down on paper helps solidify the thinking. I think every trade - when printed out- written- presents a starting point for analysis- Perhaps- Consider - looking at each & every individual recent trade- in hindsight- once the emotion of the moment has passed..... What is a big loss? Is it 50% needing a 100% gain to get back to where you started? Does a 30% loss pay the tuition fee? After the loss comes what? Enlightenment? Experience? From there does success and consistent trading start? t this point, I'm risking what I SIM traded. Very little. This is how I'm surviving this curve. I'm not adding contracts, I'm not risking more than 1 to 1.5% of capital on each trade. This seems very responsible ! If you were initiating a swing trade - However- If you take 15- trades each day, your port risk on any one day is 20% +/- exposure/ ?????? That seems quite large an average Risk -every day- unless you substantially reduce the # of trades you make- JMHO. I think daytrading has got to be one of the most rigorous occupations out there- As a new trader- you have absolutely no experience in the Ring in real time- You will do well to give yourself 'Ring time' and survive the learning curve. Simply step back and try to only take what you consider the "Best" Quality trades- Don't worry about making money at this point- Concern yourself with executing well disciplined trades and see if you can build an actual foundation of entry and exit signals- While i am not a daytrader- One should always know what the next higher time frame direction is- Trades in the lower time frame that coincide with the higher trend direction will usually prove to be more lengthy & profitible- My Opinion..... Trades that are countertrend bounces should be held with a tighter stop to nail any weakness/shift back to the predominant trend- Reversion to the mean prevails. Does that always hold true/ How much volatility? Again, good luck in your journey- If you decide that longevity has it's merits- don't worry about getting Rich in the next week or two! Instead, Plan to be Here for the next Year or Two- or Ten. Forget the noise- Find the very best of the best setups and focus on them- ignore the rest as noise- Analyze them, find out what works- develop a focused strategy on your best entries/exits You have the rest of your life to determine what those really are- They will change- You will change. I think the Key here is to be a survivor first- Understand that the expectation is that you will simply be another well intentioned casualtie of the trading environment. Why would you be the exception to the norm? Yes- I am asking you why it should be "Normal" that as a new trader you should have "big" losses/ Are you prepared to sustain "Big losses?" If "big Losses' are the norm- and you don't want to be normal- don't trade the way new traders trade You perhaps started that way- Good Luck to your Future Success! SD
Definitely, no hard feelings! while we all agree we are seeking similar gains- Ultimately we are all on a similar quest- Just different methods in play- some work well at some times- some better than others- Your quest is indeed more challenging- I've always held the thought that the greater the Risk, should receive the greater reward- Unfortunately, life is not always Fair- As you note- "very few will make it' Sadly, I believe this is true.......You indeed have a realistic view - of the probabilities..... A 15 minute hold , average? I would eat a bottle of MAALOX every day! Yes- I held SDS for 3 days last week and Cure until today this week- Trying to catch as much of the momentum with stops just under each day's close- The entry is the Risk- got to see the move go into profitable territory quickly- or prepare to see a gap lower overnight on a swing. Taking the swing trades on a 2 hour chart / 30 minute chart vs a daily chart is a take-away- from ET. Improves the R:R - greater # of stop outs- lower loss.... I have learned a lot from this site and the short term traders associated with it and appreciate their postings- I will grant you that Day trading has to be one of the most difficult ways to achieve & maintain profitibility- How do you not over Risk your port? Hope to discuss this later- Good luck SD
23OCT2014 Review I am finally proud to announce that I traded with discipline today. As mentioned earlier, I avoided range and CHOP, and I also didn't trade for a while during the open. The range at the open actually began at around 0800 and continued for a while. Today was filled with the classic range breakout. My plan buys/sells the first retrace after the breakout and works well. However, I've only done it live with buys. Sells could be another story live. We'll see when it happens. TRADES I TOOK 1. -2.25: Classic shakeout IMHO. My 2 pt stop was more than enough. Price retraced 50% of the up move. It ranged for a little. The range still broke, and held at 50%, so I re-entered. Traders were seeking new value. 2. +3.5: Re-entered and I can't remember why I exited. In hindsight, it looks like fear. Fear of losing. My money would be taken, I should book while I can, etc... My system is based off letting winners run! This fear needs to be addressed. Glad it was still profitable. However, it could have been at least double the points without fear. 3. +5 points: Having realized trade 2 was exited out of fear, I continued to re-enter the trade I should have stayed in. This trade was luck. I'm sorry...but it was. Nothing about this trade is according to plan, I'm glad it worked. 4. -2 points: It's amazing how past trades influence our future behavior. Because I exited too early on trade 2, and made money on trade 3 by re-entering, I entered again here. However, we are ranging. Take the hit. Even if I stayed in trade 2 to the exit of trade 3 according to my plan, trade 4 might have still been initiated which always "assumes continuation" of the trend. Always assume continuation until price tells you otherwise. (I like taking only 8 trades, I have less to talk about. ) 5. +3 points: Good range play. Not according to plan. LUCK. Not tested. Not confirmed. Luck. After placing trade I was upset with myself. 6. +2.75: Yet another range breakout, and we were trading into lunch. Took little profits I could and left until 1330. 7. +7.5: I really loved this play. Another range breakout, and my profit literally rode the channel median until an increase in supply hit the market. Fun to look at...see attached. 8. -2.25: Perfect time for a short, not a long. Silly me. Demand line was clearly broken, and a short of first retrace would have been good for another 10 points. ALL IN ALL. PROFIT = 15.25 points. Attached is the chart with the trades taken. I could have continued trading and taken the short to the demand line. DBpheonix has some great instructional threads here at ET and also at traderslabratory I think? Anyways, I was so amazed today to see price continue to respect certain demand/supply trendlines. It was almost an aha moment. When price finally tanked today after the climb, it found support almost a week later from a demand line drawn on 10/16! Extending these lines onto my charts has helped tremendously lately. I thought for sure traders would take price to at least 4029 today. I was biased. We had a very steep channel heading in that direction, and we also had a broken supply line today on the hourly. Anyways, I don't really like having a bias anymore. No bias, no surprises. Attached are the trades, and I'm pretty happy with them. I could have held longer on a couple, and I missed the great short opportunity. See you tomorrow!
24OCT2014 Prep We are still in an uptrend on daily. Price hovering above the channel mean. Mean down at about 3900, price is at around 4002. Uptrend channel on Hourly broke yesterday. Price retraced more than 50% after yesterday's climb, which could suggest traders are satisfied with their value for now. We could go sideways today. At 930 what are you doing? Again we are not trading open or CHOP/Range. Price is hovering "around" a demand line, but that demand line has been broken after yesterdays fall to 4000 after the climb to almost 4025. it might be a "choppy" day, and price really could go either way after yesterday. HOWEVER, price did find support at a 50% retrace of yesterdays move, and this suggests strength if price continues to climb. No chart. Good luck! Oh yea, sticking with the best set ups, and 8 trades.
Really, ouch. I worked out last week, all my big losers are on a friday, I try not to trade Fridays, i try to hard and dont want to take a loss and often give back the weeks profits and more. Sucks
I know! I didn't feel all too well this morning. I should have observed for a while I think. At least I live to fight another week. Pretty sure I met my trade quota so that I'm not charged. Ahahahahha