Context for recent price movement - price is still within the steeper slope for shorter term down March trend lines drawn but has been steadily moving toward the upper level. Overall, price is still in an up trend. Overnight, price ranged between 3535 and 3529 - quite tight. Price is above the 50% mark of the entire up move, is above 3493 and even above the last swing low of the area around 3520. Possible next moves: --Stay where it is. But being so close to the upper level of the TC, I'm not viewing that as very likely. --Go up to the upper level of the March TC - 3550. --Go up to the lower level of the longer term up TC - 3580. --It could also take a trip back down to the mean of the March TC - 3480. --It could make another trip down to the lower boundary of the March TC - currently around 3430. The job is to watch price and see where it goes.
So I'm simming, but I'm not making a ton of progress. It's likely time for me to step back to observing and/or backtesting. It seems as if I observe pretty well when I'm not in a trade (yes - even when simming and it's monopoly money), but once it's a trade, the fear of losing kicks in. There was no need for me to exit my short after the REJ at 3546. Price ebbs and flows, but I want it to follow a very specific path. There was more 'down' movement than sideways or even up, but a small spike against me caused me to second guess my trade and I exited. I will go back to steps 1 and 2 as well as do more with categorizing the market. Have I already been at these stages? Yes. It doesn't matter - time to go back and do it again. I'm skittish like a kitten and the only thing that will change that is more understanding and practice.
So I took some time away from trading and it's been good for me. I was so wrapped up in the trees that I couldn't see the forest. It was nice to take a break and not think about the market for a while, but it's been calling to me lately. I still have a lot of work to do and I'm prepared to take the time to put in the work (chart review, simming, back testing, hypotheses, etc.) to get to a place where I'm comfortable to trade. My issue was fear - fear of being wrong, fear of being right, fear of losing money, fear of holding. You name it, I was fearful. But I was fearful because I didn't trust myself to make the right decisions and I didn't have a plan. That's the long and the short of it (pun intended). I had desire, but I didn't have explicit rules for what I'd do when 'x' happened. I was quasi following SLA, but was fooling myself if I think I was really doing it. If you're only partially following a plan that was fully tested, and make a bunch of changes to the rules (tight lines, freaking out when price goes against you, and you're not successful, who can really be surprised? My goal is to use the premise of SLA (trend following and entries based on retraces), but I need to refine my entries. I'm not comfortable entering at every retrace and need to figure out rules that work for me where I'm comfortable to enter and then I've got to figure out my exits. I'm getting back on this train and I'll see where it takes me. I'm excited about round II of this adventure. Away we go!
Do you accept that if this premise is invalid then you're on the road to nowhere? If you're not successful, and haven't had exposure to successful traders (no, not on the Internet) - then why would you trust your judgement on whether a method is or could be viable? Why not check out the fate of any of the other dbphoenix followers by reading their first and last "NQ price action journal" entries? You'll find my thoughts in my (short) post history if you're interested. I find this morbidly fascinating but also a waste of time. I'm done wasting time.
I accept that I have work to do determining the best way for ME to trade. If I start down this path and don't find that it works, so be it. It's called forming a plan and testing for a reason. Why you are so adamant that this approach doesn't work, but don't offer an explanation of what IS a better approach? Do you seek out entries with the letters SLA in them? How did you hone in on me so quickly? Why?
Thanks guys - appreciate it. Seems you've both been making progress. Glad to read about it and keep it up!
So it may have seemed that I came back into the fray only to leave again. Well, I've been doing work outside of the ET audience. It's certainly easy to lurk or to even comment periodically on other people's journals, but I just wasn't ready for people to pounce on whatever I'd posted - especially after GoB came out of nowhere. I've actually taken a lot of the advice that kp was given about backtesting, looking for specific setups, and figuring out stop placement and targets. I've been reviewing past charts and determining the MAE that was comfortable for my risk tolerance while allowing a trade to move also knowing that there'd be some indication that the trade was NOT going to work. I haven't quite figured out the definitive rule for the trade not working, but I'm looking at price in such a different way. I read back through my journal and can "hear" myself and know that I just wasn't seeing things like I am now. I'm not ready for sim yet and writing that in itself is a huge step forward for me. I'm not rushing this. It'll happen, but it won't happen because I have a specific timeframe for completion. With the chart review I'm doing, I've learned about myself and the whole numbers game of it in conjunction with the emotional side. I think it was NoDoji who wrote something about pretty much writing off the amount of money that you were willing to risk as it related to your stop loss. For me, that was huge. Say I'm ok with risking 3 points per trade. In the NQ, that's $60 plus commissions. When you decide to enter, that $60ish is just gone. I always used to trade with hope and figured I wouldn't put on a trade unless it was going in my direction. So a) I didn't expect to lose money, b) I was wrong, and c) I lost money. It was a triple failure and it was compounding as I kept at it. I still have a bunch of work to do, but I'm doing it and figuring out how I can work within the confines of the market. Thus far I've determined that the initial 10 minutes after the NY open aren't an option for me. The swings are too great and I'm not comfortable with the pullback. Will I miss out on opportunities and perhaps the best entries some days? Very likely. But I won't get find myself in a situation that's more volatile just because of the time of day. Many might disagree with my rule. That's ok - it's my rule and as simple as it sounds, it provides me with a more peaceful outlook. More to come at a pace that works for me.