I agree as far as black boxes and other software that claims to develop complete algos to trade. But if you buy software to help you with system development and put your own effort and time to get the final result you can end up with something good.
Why do you even bother asking? Anything available in the public domain doesn't work or will cease to work in the near future. Only way to gain an edge is to develop something yourself from scratch.
I think that the healthiest approach in the evaluation of any trading system is to request a real live track record. The lengthier the track record the better. There are way too many academics, programmers, etc. who sell codes yet have nothing to substantiate their results besides the hypothetical track records that is produced by the software. There are two problems with such results: 1) They don't account for commissions, slippage, etc. 2) The program does not know how to test right. Specifically "inside bar" calculations do not account whether a profit or loss has occurred first. Many default to profit first. 3) Assumptions that each limit order gets filed (this is where day trading systems break) So again, ask for as much info as possible. You can follow live performance here: Automated Futures Systems
False. There are plenty of viable systems that work well and will continue to work indefinitely. There are generic models that never stop working, they worked good in the market 100 years ago and they work good today. Not everything is curve fitted crap. It takes 5-10 years to develop a successful systematic strategy. If one do start today with R&D you may have something working in 2022, if you are lucky. For most people it is just best option to purchase signals or let a CTA manage for you.
I can give you a general guideline that when you seek a system, methods, CTA, etc. Make sure you look at the frequency of trading during the day, week, and month. I have found that methods that do not trade frequently would tend to outperform those that have lots of trading, at least those that are available within the retail domain. If a system is a day trading system, it does not mean it has to trade in high frequency, or even trade daily. In my opinion, infrequent trading shows a system is "waiting" for the right set of conditions to be met. The auto systems that are optimized on short term parameters tend to over trade at times. Again, I am discussing those who seek to utilize 3rd party solutions. We wrote a small booklet about evaluations of automated trading, and anyone who PMs me, I will send him one. (There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results)
most of the times, when it comes to trading it's like going to the moon: for a naive person it seems not a big deal, it does not look very far away but still he will never succeed. On the other hand with a proper research and much development it was possible, hard though. The moral of the story, stop looking for holy grail and evolve yourself, if you don't have the time or talent to do your own research stop trading, you will most probably loose, which may also happen if you do you own research, but thats another story.
I think most recognize the difficult of trading and I don't think this discussion is about finding the "holy grail". Rather, a discussion about finding ways to evaluate performance that is offered via passive vehicles. The same way you put an effort into researching any given methodology, you can develop a set of skills when it comes to evaluation of automated/mechanical systems, managed futures, etc. Take a look at this article as an example: http://www.optimusfutures.com/trade...used-in-evaluating-automated-trading-systems/ You should be open minded to the fact that there are a number of ways to participate in the markets.