PNRA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-panera-pnra-050017430.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panera-2q-profit-drops-3-224647878.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PNRA+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PNRA&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PNRA at 152.01 Jan '15 185/190 bear call spread for a net credit of $37 Yield = 37/463 = 8% in 147 days or 19.8% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(37) - .02(463) - .02(232) = 35.52 - 9.26 - 4.64 = 21.62
AMGN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-upgraded-strong-buy-194002393.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMGN Key Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=amgn http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMGN&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With AMGN at 132.82 Jan '16 95/90 bull put spread for a net credit of $59 Yield = 59/441 = 13.4% in 509 days or 9.6% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(59) - .04(441) - .02(220) = 55.46 - 17.64 - 4.4 = 33.42
ITMN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roche-buy-us-biotech-firm-intermune-8-3b-164942956--finance.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=ITMN&m=2015-01 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=ITMN&m=2016-01
ANN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-ann-ann-050019781.html http://news.investors.com/082214-71...lowered.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://www.thestreet.com/story/1285...is-slumping-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ANN Key Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ann http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ANN&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With ANN at 37.52 March 44/48 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/350 =14.3% in 206 days or 25.3% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .8(50) - .1(350) - .1(175) = 40 - 35 - 17.5 = -12
OMG: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-om-group-omg-050020837.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=omg http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=omg http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=OMG Key Statistics Trade: With OMG at 26.49 Oct 25/20 bear put spread for a net debit of $45 Price........Profit / Loss......ROI % 15.00........455.00.........1011.11% 18.48........455.00.........1011.11% 20.00........455.00.........1011.11% 22.14........241.50...........536.67% 24.55............0.00..............0.00% 25.00.........(45.00)........-100.00% 25.79.........(45.00)........-100.00% 29.45.........(45.00)........-100.00% 33.11.........(45.00)........-100.00%
PSMT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-pricesmart-psmt-050033523.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pricesmart-down-strong-sell-soft-174002243.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PSMT+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PSMT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PSMT at 90.37 Jan 110/115 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.11% in 135 days or 30% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(50) - .06(450) - .04(225) = 45 - 27 - 9 = 9
MRK: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/b...rug-for-cancer.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-approves-merck-immune-stimulating-194459254.html http://247wallst.com/healthcare-bus...n-cancer-drug-approval-really-means-to-merck/ "Keytruda is the first drug approved that inhibits the action of one of those brakes, a protein known as PD-1, or programmed death receptor 1." http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRK Key Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=mrk http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With MRK at 60.08 Jan '15 52.50/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $22 Yield = 22/228 = 9.6% in 133 days or 26.5% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(22) - .02(228) - .02(114) = 20.68 - 4.56 - 2.28 = 13.84 ..Price...........Profit / Loss.........ROM % ....35.00............(228.00)........-91.20% ....45.00............(228.00)........-91.20% ....50.00............(228.00)........-91.20% ....52.28.................0.00............0.00% ....52.31................3.20............1.28% ....52.50...............22.00...........9.60% ....60.00...............22.00............9.60% ....65.00...............22.00............9.60% ....70.00...............22.00............9.60%
MDT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/medtronic-poised-improved-q1-covidien-195504603.html http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/us/graying-of-america-is-speeding-report-says.html?_r=0 http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/070114/your-best-best-medical-space-xlv-cov-mdt-fxh.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MDT Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MDT&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=MDT Trade: With MDT at 64.31 Jan '16 50/47.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 495 days or 14% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(40) - .04(210) - .03(105) = 37.2 - 8.4 - 3.2 = 25.6 Price.........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 35.00............(210.00).......-84.00% 45.00............(210.00).......-84.00% 47.50............(210.00).......-84.00% 49.60.................0.00...........0.00% 50.00...............40.00..........19.00% 55.00...............40.00..........19.00% 60.00...............40.00..........19.00% 65.00...............40.00..........19.00% 70.00...............40.00..........19.00%
AMGN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-edges-trial-results-224200564.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-seeks-eu-approval-pcsk9-210002420.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMGN&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMGN Key Statistics Trade: Apr '15 100/95 bull put spread for a net credit of $26 Yield = 26/474 = 5.5% in 221 days or 9.1% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(26) - .01(474) - .01(237) = 25.48 - 4.74 - 2.37 = 18.4 I already have a Jan spread on AMGN so for me this would be a half position because of the overlap
SWHC: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-27/gun-sales-are-down#r=read http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rid-smith-wesson-holding-swhc-104751305.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SWHC+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SWHC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=%5EGSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SWHC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: with SWHC at 10.47 Jan '16 15/17 bear call spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/165 = 21% in 493 days or 15.7% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(35) - .06(165) - .06(82.5) = 30.8 - 9.9 - 4.95 = 15.9