Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ituglobal, Jan 11, 2014.

  1. Thanks for the insight. We'll be watching Sunday night.
     
    #31     Jul 12, 2014
  2. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 21 - 25, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The dominant bias for this week has been the same for last week – it is unchanged. The bearish trend in the market is now particularly strong, and it may continue as such. The price may reach the support lines of 1.3500 and 1.3450 within the next several trading days. Meanwhile, there are possible rallies in the context of the downtrend, which may take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.3550 and 1.3600, respectively. Those resistance lines ought to act as a serious impediment to the rallies that may render the bearish bias invalid.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In contrast to what the EUR/USD is doing, this pair is in an uptrend. It is currently trading above the support level at 0.8950, and it should go further upwards, following the current shallow retracement in the market. However, it is very unlikely that the great resistance level at 0.9000 would be breached to the upside, and thus, the bulls may want to take their profits at that level. Should the price breach the resistance level at 0.9000 and succeed in closing above it, that would signify the continuation of the constant stamina in the market, and a continuation of the bullish bias.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This currency trading instrument has been able to maintain its recent bullish outlook in spite of its present inability to go further upwards in a significant mode. The inability to go further upwards in a significant mode has also resulted in a great risk of the price sliding downwards. In fact, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean the bullish outlook has been rendered totally useless. For the bullish outlook not to become useless, the price needs to stay above that accumulation territory, and better go upwards again.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The market is still able to maintain its bearish bias; as a result of the strength in the Yen. The bearish outlook is expected to continue, though things may not be a significant as the situation on other JPY pairs. The demand level at 101.00 should, at least, be tested.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The weakness of this cross, brought about by the weakness in the Euro versus the strength in the Yen, has resulted in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The price is expected to continue going downwards, though the probabilities of transitory rallies and consolidations cannot be ruled out along the way.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Some of the most famous hedge fund managers are renowned for being skilled risk takers from a young age.” – Bruce Bower
     
    #32     Jul 17, 2014
  3. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 28 – August 1, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair has dropped by over 140 pips since last week, testing the support line at 1.3450. The price has tried to bounce upwards from that support line, but the upward bounce is weak. It is still expected that the price would test the support line again, and possibly break it to the downside, going further downwards. The resistance lines at 1.3500 and 1.3550 could do a good job resisting any significant rallies that may jeopardize the existing bias.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The USD/CHF recently achieved a feat – it broke the great support level at 0.9000 to the upside. Apart from that, it has been able to stay above that support level, making more attempts to go further northwards. The next target, which is an obstacle to be breached, is the resistance levels at 0.9050 and 0.9100. While it is possible that the market could challenge those levels, it may be very difficult for it to breach the level 0.9100 to the upside. Therefore the bulls may want to take their profits there.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    It is not a surprise that the Cable has become bearish, following a good bullish run that has just ended. Since the price was unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.7150 (not to mention closing above it), it gave way to gravity. From that distribution territory, the price has gone downwards by roughly 180 pips. The price is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.7000; it could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Unlike most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY did not go seriously downwards because of the strength in the Greenback. The bull is now flexing his muscle, pushing the price upwards; and this has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price may easily test the supply level at 102.00: it may even break it to the upside, going further north. On the other hand, there is a risk of a sudden pullback, which may take the price towards the demand level at 101.50.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This is a strongly trending market – with a marked weakness. The price dived and tested the demand zone at 136.50, after which it bounced upwards. The upwards bounce may be contained at the supply zones of 137.50 and 138.00. From these zones, the price may go downwards again towards the demand zone at 136.50.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “…The fundamental factors suggest what ought to happen in the market, while the technical factors suggest what actually is happening in the market” – Richard Schabacker
     
    #33     Jul 25, 2014
  4. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 - 8, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair has been able to continue its southward journey. The price is now going below the resistance line at 1.3400. The resistance line is a war zone between the bulls and the bears, for the price would be making some attempts to breach it to the upside. Should the initial resistance line get broken to the upside, another resistance line at 1.3450 would serve as another hurdle for the bulls. A break above the resistance line at 1.3450 would pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend may continue, thus pushing the price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 0.3300.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    As it was forecasted last week, the USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls would like to take their profits, because the price ought to retrace southwards from there. For the bullish journey to continue, the price needs to break that resistance level to the upside, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. Should the price fail to do this, a near-term or medium-term bearish run would begin.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The Cable dived by about 120 pips this week. The bearish outlook is currently strong, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has a great probability of continuing further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively. On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 should act as impediment to any rallies along the way.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The Greenback is strong; no wonder the USD/JPY rallied, especially in the face of the weakness in the Yen. The market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken to the upside before the northward movement can continue. Otherwise, there could be some deep pullbacks that might take the price towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The EUR itself is not that strong, but as a result of an exponential weakness in the JPY, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to reject the recent bearish bias on it, paving way for a new bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, the bullish signal would make sense. The price might even go upwards towards the supply zone at 138.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “The markets are, as it were, behavioral economics in action. And that is what you benefit from as a trend follower.” – Michael Covel
     
    #34     Jul 31, 2014
  5. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 11 - 15, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair has been able to continue its slow and steady journey downwards so far. There are occasional shallow rallies in the market – which often lead to renewed ‘sell’ signals. The Euro is very weak right now and the market has a high probability of remaining bearish next week (even in this month of August 2014). Yes, the probability that the market would remain bearish is far higher than the probability that it would turn seriously bullish. The market could become seriously bullish within the next several trading days, but the possibility of this happening is far less than the possibility of the market remaining bearish. A trend is not over until it is actually over.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    What could happen next to the USD/CHF? Since the pair is in a negative correlation to the EUR/USD, it would go upwards as the latter goes downwards. The possibility of the continuation of the uptrend is very high, but there is an impediment to be overcome: the great resistance level at 0.9100. Just like the support level at 0.9000 - which gave the bulls extremely tough time before it was finally breached - the resistance level at 0.9100 is another barrier. However, the barrier must be broken to the upside for the bullish bias to continue, even if it is going to be a pyrrhic victory. The support level at 0.9000 itself is a great barrier to the bears’ interest, for the bear that tries it now could well be hurtling itself against a rock.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The Cable is positively correlated with the EUR/USD, and thus should also continue trading downwards, unless there is an unexpected event which catapults the price skywards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.6800 and 1.6750 sooner or later.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The USD may be strong somewhere else, but not with the JPY. In fact, most JPY pairs are bearish and the USD/JPY is no different. There is a ‘sell’ signal in the market, for the price could go on towards the demand level at 101.50. The supply level at 103.00 should check any serious bullish breakouts (for the bearish outlook could be rendered useless when it happens that the supply level is challenged).

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    As a result of the weakness in the Euro and the stamina in the Yen, this cross has become very weak. Long trades are no longer sensible here, for the price could reach the demand levels at 136.00 and 135.50 next week.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Trading is a joy to me and I do not get half as stressed as I used to do.” - Stu Whisson
     
    #35     Aug 7, 2014
  6. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 18 - 22, 2014)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This pair has continued to be weak, though the southward movement has been limited so far. In fact, there is a constant struggle between the bull and the bear, which has resulted in a high volatility. The resistance line at 1.3400 has been battered a few times (bearing the brunt of the struggle in the market). While the possibility of a serious rally holds, the pair could still go further downwards, reaching the strong support line at 1.3300. In the meantime, a stronger bearish bias is needed to break the tough support line at 1.3350 to the downside.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    On the USDCHF, there is a great support level at 0.9000 and a formidable resistance level at 0.9100. The price presently hovers between the two market levels, while the resistance level at 0.9100 faces more challenge from the buyers. This resistance level was tested several times between August 5 and 7, 2014: it was also tested this week. The price is supposed to go upwards again to test the resistance level. The resistance level ought to be broken to the upside as the bullish trend continues. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9000 would mean the end of the bullish outlook.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This currency trading instrument is weak, and the weakness has started since the middle of July 2014. The price has dropped by about 500 pips since then. This week alone, the price has dropped by over 100 pips. There could be another movement to the downside, which could take the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600. Any rallies in the price should be short-term: they should be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6800 and 1.6850.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Since the JPY is weaker than the USD, it is not a surprise that this pair has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner. In fact, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 103.00 within the next several trading days.


    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The bearish outlook on this cross is now under a threat - any journey above the supply zone at 137.50 would mean the beginning of a new bullish outlook and the end of the current bearish outlook. But as long as the price cannot break the aforementioned supply zone to the upside, the bearish bias would be rational.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Cut short your losses; let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo (1772 - 1823)
     
    #36     Aug 15, 2014
  7. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 25 - 29, 2014)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This pair has been able to maintain its bearish bias. In this kind of market, any rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short. Therefore, the current rally may be another short-selling opportunity, provided that it does not go above the resistance line at 1.3350. Any movement above that resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias. Should the bearish journey continue, the price may reach the support line at 1.3200.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    As it was expected – at least as a mandatory condition for the continuation of the extant bullish trend on the USD/CHF – the support level at 0.9100 has been breached successfully. After the breach to the upside, the price closed above that level, going further upwards. The price needs to break the resistance level at 0.9150 to the upside, or at least, test it, as the bullish journey continues. Now, the support level at 0.9100 has become a great barrier to any bearish pulls along the way.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    Since the middle of July 2014, the Cable has dropped by over 550 pips. It is clear that the trend-following sellers would have made huge gains while those who go against the trend would have suffered adverse consequences. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable, and so, long trades are not yet sensible. A trend is not over until it is actually over. It is possible that the price would reach the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600 within the next several trading days. However, this would not happen without challenges from the bulls. The bullish challenges may be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    There is now an established northward outlook on this currency trading instrument. The price was able to break the demand level at 103.00 to the upside, going towards the supply level at 104.00. The supply level at 104.50 could be the target for the next week.


    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    The Euro is a weak currency and the Yen is also a weak currency. But in this scenario, the Yen is weaker than the Euro; thus the current bullish breakout, which has now been sustained. In fact, all the JPY pairs are bullish and the EUR/JPY pair is no exception. After the supply zone at 138.00 is tested and broken to the upside, the price may target another supply zone at 139.00.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:



    “My good trades not only pay for my bad trades, but also put food on the table.” – Chris Ebert
     
    #37     Aug 21, 2014
  8. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 1 - 5, 2014)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This pair is still currently bearish, but it is forming a base. A base is a kind of consolidation that precedes a breakout. With more weakness in the Euro, the price could reach the support lines at 1.3100 and 1.3050. Meanwhile, any rallies along the way might be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3250 and 1.3300. Any movement above the resistance line at 1.3300 would mean the end of the bearish bias, especially when the price closes above the line.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This pair is still currently bullish, but it is highly volatile. With more strength in the USD, the price could reach the resistance levels at 0.9200 and 0.9250. This is not what the bulls would find very easy to achieve, however. Meanwhile, any pullbacks along the way might be contained at the support levels of 0.9100 and 0.9050. Any movement below the support level at 0.9050 would mean the end of the bullish bias, especially when the price closes below that level.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The Cable is also forming a base – and thus a breakout is normally expected. This week, the market (whose bias is still logically bearish) has not gone downwards significantly. In fact, the market has been consolidating to the upside. The price could go further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6550 and 1.6500. Possible rallies could push the price upwards to the distribution territories at 1.6650 and 1.6700. Should the price close above the distribution territory at 1.6700, it would mean a clean bullish signal.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    This currency trading instrument has not been able to move upwards significantly recently. In fact, the bears are threatening the situation, which has already become precarious. Nevertheless, the price ought to breach the demand level at 103.00 before the bullish bias can be rendered useless. For the bullish bias to continue to be valid, the price needs to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 104.50.


    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The weakness in the Euro as compared to the strength in the Yen has forced this cross to form a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. It may be possible that the Euro would be strong somewhere else, but as long as the JPY is stronger than it, the confirmed bearish outlook may continue to hold, taking the price towards the demand zone at 136.00


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Forex offers a level playing field for a wide variety of market participants — be it newbies or veterans, small or large accounts, full-time or part-time traders. Forex allows you to choose what fits you best: your time of the day, your preferred holding period, your trading style, your account size and your leverage.”- Gabriel Grammatidis
     
    #38     Aug 28, 2014
  9. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 8 - 12, 2014)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The sudden weakness in the EUR has caused this pair to tumble. The pair was already bearish when this happened (it has been bearish since June 2014). On Thursday, September 4, 2014, the pair fell further by over 200 pips. In fact, all other EUR pairs tumbled. Therefore, it is plausible to expect further downward plunge in the market, and should this hold true, the price could reach the support levels at 1.2850 and 1.2800. On the other hand, it could have happened that the pair has hit a rock-solid bottom that may be a barrier to further southward journey for the next several weeks. Any rallies in the context of the downtrend could take the price back towards the resistance levels at 1.3100 and 1.3150.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Since the USD/CHF is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is no wonder that the former has gone upwards determinedly. Really, our target for this week has been exceeded and price is now poised to go upwards towards the resistance levels at 0.9400 and 0.9450. However, the USD attainment of parity with the CHF is not likely in the long run – that is a far cry. As long as the EUR is weak and the USD is strong, the bullish trend would continue; but should the opposite occur, a strong bearish retracement may force the price to test the support levels at 0.9200 and 0.9150 respectively.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The consolidated bullish attempt that occurred on the Cable last week turned out to be an opportunity to go short. This week, the market has dropped by over 300 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1.3650. The distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6450 could be barriers to any bullish attempts in the context of the currently strong downtrend. The next target in the market is the accumulation territory at 1.6200.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    Since the Greenback has lots of stamina in it, it is more likely that this currency trading instrument would continue to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 106.00. The demand level at 104.50 is an immediate hindrance to any pullback that may occur along the way.


    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The sudden loss of stamina in this cross (brought about by further weakness in the Euro) has led to a new lease of Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The demand zone at 136.00 has been tested, and with further weakness of the cross, the price can go on towards another demand zone at 135.00.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet, but it still offers significant profit potential for intermediate and advanced traders. Swing traders receive sufficient feedback on their trades after a couple of days to keep them motivated, but their long and short positions of several days are of the duration that does not lead to distraction.”– Jason Van Bergen
     
    #39     Sep 4, 2014
  10. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 15 - 19, 2014)


    Here’s the market outlook for the week:


    EURUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    The EURUSD has been consolidating recently – neither going upwards nor downwards significantly. A breakout is expected very soon, which may likely be in the direction of the dominant bias. This southward break may take the price towards the resistance levels at 1.2850 and 1.2800 successively. However, a rally above the resistance lines at 1.3000 and 1.3050 could mean the beginning of a new bullish journey.


    USDCHF

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    As long as the EURUSD is weak, the USDCHF is bound to be strong. The resistance level at 0.9400 is about to be tested and should that happen, a breach of that resistance level could cause the price to nose towards another resistance level at 0.9450. Along the way, a sudden pullback may also try to take the price towards the support level at 0.9250.


    GBPUSD

    Dominant bias: Bearish

    This currency trading instrument remains bearish when looking at the big picture, but the recent rally in the market can pose a threat to the big picture, especially if it continues. As long as the price is under the distribution territory at 1.6350, the bearish outlook is valid. Only a break above that distribution territory would signify a new bullish signal. Further bearish continuation can push the price towards the accumulation territory at 1.6100, which was previously tested.


    USDJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    As it was forecasted, this market was able to move above the demand levels at 106.00 and 106.50. The price is currently trading above the demand level at 107.00 and the next target could be the supply levels at 107.50 and 108.00. There are barriers to bears’ machinations at the demand levels at 106.50 and 106.00. The bullish signal remains valid as long as the market is above these demand levels.


    EURJPY

    Dominant bias: Bullish

    The weakness in Yen and the bullish determination in the EUR have enabled this cross to shoot skywards. In fact, the skyward movement has resulted in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. From the demand zone at 136.00, the price has skyrocketed by over 260 pips (most other JPY pairs are also bullish). With more weakness in the Yen, the price might reach the supply zone at 140.00 soon.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


    “Trading has a poor image among the public, which I don’t think it deserves... Good trading principles are also helpful in normal life.”- Rene Wolfram
     
    #40     Sep 12, 2014