Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:02:41 PM)
Ok, today we're pleased to welcome Todd Krueger of TradeGuider to the Elite Trader Chat Room.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:02:49 PM)
Todd's interest in investing and trading accelerated after earning his Series 3 license in 1985. His passion for trading has grown immensely over the years and he has invested heavily in educating himself on being a better trader.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:02:59 PM)
Todd was a previous customer of TradeGuider (then called VSA) and believed so strongly in the power of the software that he purchased a shareholding in TradeGuider Systems, LLC.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:03:17 PM)
This evening, Todd is going to demonstrate one of the unique features of TradeGuider-how it automatically identifies professional activity in the markets by analyzing Volume, Price and Spread (range) in liquid markets, so you can make better trading decisions.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:03:27 PM)
Todd, welcome. Thanks for joining us today.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:03:31 PM)
Hello everyone and a big welcome to all of you wherever you may be in the world at this time. My name is Todd Krueger and I am CEO of TradeGuider Systems LLC, based here in Chicago, and I am here with Gavin Holmes, CEO of TradeGuider Systems Worldwide.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:03:47 PM)
Thank you for taking the time to join us for this explanation of TradeGuider and the underlying methodology of Volume Spread Analysis. Over the next 45 minutes to an hour we will be showing examples of how professional activity is clearly visible in all markets and in all timeframes, if you know what you are looking for. We will take questions after our initial presentation which should last around 40 minutes, we have a lot to cover with a lot of text, but be patient, because we will get to those all important charts and tell you how you can get a lot of free information sent to you.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:04:10 PM)
The information you are about to see is proprietary to TradeGuider and is part of our 12 week “Master The Markets” training course (called “Trainware”) which includes the TradeGuider software that you will see today. It is based on a methodology called Volume Spread Analysis. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a proprietary market analysis method which was conceived by Tom Williams (Chairman of TradeGuider Systems). VSA is utilized in the TradeGuider software to analyse a market by observing the interrelationship between volume, price and spread. This method is particularly good at highlighting imbalances of supply and demand.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:04:27 PM)
First, a little bit of background about Gavin and Myself.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:04:47 PM)
My interest in investing and trading accelerated after earning my Series 3 license in 1985. My passion for trading has grown immensely over the years and I have invested heavily in educating myself on becoming a better trader. I was a previous customer of VSA (now called TradeGuider) and believed so strongly in the power of the software that I purchased a shareholding in TradeGuider Systems, LLC with the majority of the money I had made when trading. Out of all the trading courses I have taken, and all the trading software packages that I have owned, there is one common denominator that I have learned that is essential to being a profitable trader; your approach to the market must be your own, the approach has to fit your individual personality and trading style.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:05:15 PM)
After leaving school Gavin served as a Police Officer with both the Hampshire Constabulary and Metropolitan Police in the United Kingdom before entering into business, first working as a jeweler and then becoming sales director of an exhibition and events company in London. In 1998 Gavin started his first business designing and building exhibition stands worldwide, and now Gavin owns or has major shareholdings in several successful companies including TradeGuider. Having attended many of Tony Robbins seminars, Gavin understands the power of positive thinking and discipline in our lives, a very important factor when trading the markets. Now based in Chicago, Gavin’s role as CEO Worldwide is to set up and manage relationships with resellers and business partners across the globe, a challenge that he has already undertaken with the successful launch of TradeGuider LLC in the United States.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:05:44 PM)
Now some background about TradeGuider, which was previously known as VSA, which is an abbreviation of Volume Spread Analysis, a trading methodology developed by veteran syndicate trader Tom Williams (more about Tom later), and has been in existence for over 14 years. TradeGuider is unique. Driven by an artificial intelligence engine, the software is capable of analysing any liquid market, in any time frame, and extract the information it needs to indicate imbalances of supply and demand on a chart. In doing so, TradeGuider is able to graphically show the essential force that moves every market .

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:06:19 PM)
The software works in either real-time or end-of-day modes, and enables users to see when professional money is entering, exiting, or not participating in the market, empowering clients to make more intelligent, timely, and informed decisions. TradeGuider is a revolutionary concept that can be used on its own or in conjunction with other trading software platforms, making it an ideal choice for adding value to data vendor platforms. The software combines ease of use with the best supply and demand analysis in the business. The extensive Expert System has an innate understanding of market dynamics combined with volume, which means that it is capable of analyzing supply and demand in any liquid market.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:07:01 PM)
The indicators are displayed automatically on the chart. There is no configuration, no setting of parameters, and no optimization. We are of the belief that if a system requires optimization to make it work, then the base methodology cannot have been sound in the first place, since the process of optimization is used to cover up a whole range of flaws in the original analysis method(s). Instead, our concepts are robust and can be applied to any timeframe, with consistent results. The sophisticated Expert System is augmented by a novel set of proprietary tools, which ensure that TradeGuider is most definitely not a ‘me too' product.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:07:54 PM)
As we said earlier, this is not a new concept, and Tom Williams who invented VSA was himself a syndicate trader who could see that the markets were manipulated and that the key to unlocking the truth lay in the relationship between the volume, the range or spread of the bar and the closing price. Tom spent many years studying the concepts of Richard Wyckoff. Richard Wyckoff was a trader from the 1920s. He wrote several books on the Market, and eventually set up the "Stock Market Institute" in Phoenix. "At its core, Wyckoff's work is based on the analysis of trading ranges, and determining when stocks are in "basing," "markdown," "distribution," or "markup" phases. Incorporated into these phases are the ongoing shifts between "weak hands" (public ownership) and "composite operators", now commonly known as smart money." To find out more about Richard Wyckoff this website is interesting http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/05/wyckoff_spring.html

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:08:51 PM)
Tom came back from Beverley hills in the early 1980’s and began to investigate if it was possible to computerize the system he had learnt as a syndicate trader, and so began the evolution of Volume Spread Analysis. Together with an experienced computer programmer Tom carefully studied many thousands of charts to recognize the obvious patterns that were left when professional or smart money was active. This methodology although simple in concept took many years to right and is is now taught as a methodology combined with the software called TradeGuider (The course we call trainware).

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:09:34 PM)
Before we continue, for those that cannot stay, here are some links to some free materials and also for further information on TradeGuider. Master the Markets Training Manual Preview http://www.tradeguider.com/ss_myu_demo.asp One on One Demonstrations http://www.tradeguider.com/hotline.asp Free CD Rom Brochure http://www.tradeguider.com/dlpdf.asp

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:10:06 PM)
OK, lets get into more detail. Volume Spread Analysis seeks to establish the cause of price movements. The ‘cause’ is quite simply the imbalance between Supply and Demand in the market, which is created by the activity of professional operators. If you use the TradeGuider software you will see that it does an excellent job of detecting these key imbalances for you, taking the hard work out of reading the markets and enabling you to fully concentrate on your trading.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:10:36 PM)
The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of technical analysis. To use a chart without volume is similar to buying an automobile without a gasoline tank.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:10:54 PM)
For the correct analysis of volume, one needs to realize that the recorded volume information contains only half of the meaning required to arrive at a correct analysis. The other half of the meaning is found in the price spread. Volume always indicates the amount of activity going on, the corresponding price spread shows the price movement on that volume.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:11:17 PM)
Some technical indicators attempt to combine volume and price movements together. Rest assured that this approach has limitations, because at times the market will go up on high volume, but can do exactly the same thing on low volume. Prices can suddenly go sideways, or even fall off, on exactly the same volume! So, there are obviously other factors at work.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:11:39 PM)
Price and volume are intimately linked, and the interrelationship is a complex one, which is the reason TradeGuider was developed in the first place. The system is capable of analysing the markets in real-time (or at the end of the day), and displaying any one of 400 indicators on the screen to show imbalances of supply and demand.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:12:08 PM)
Ok, so lets go ahead and look at some charts. These are hosted on our website so just the link and it will take you to the chart and open your internet explorer browser. If you want to see the full chart you must make sure your browser window is at maximum. We will leave this charts up indefinitely so you can view them after our presentation as it will be archived.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:12:46 PM)
The TradeGuider Indicators All of the indicators can be grouped into two broad categories: 1.Indicators that show weakness are coloured red. Weakness is indicative of supply, professionals selling the market, or professionals withdrawing from the market (i.e. no participation.) 2.Strength is indicated by green symbols and is indicative of market demand (i.e. professionals buying into the market.)

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:13:24 PM)
TradeGuider constantly analyses your charts for imbalances of supply and demand. Once an imbalance is found, a red or green indicator is displayed, alerting you to the likely strength or weakness in the market. This chart (link below) shows a number of green symbols, indicating strength (demand). Showing supply and demand graphically on a chart is one of TradeGuider’s major strengths. In the chart below, we can see that following the cumulative effect of a build up of demand, the stock responds with a positive and sustained price rise.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:13:39 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/green_indicators.jpg

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:15:06 PM)
If you cannot open the page automatically, it might be that your browser is set to not allow pop-ups. Trying holding the control button when you left click on the link to bypass the anti-popping software.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:15:07 PM)
This chart shows a number of red symbols grouped together, indicating weakness (supply) in a stock. The stock falls in price following each cluster of supply.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:15:30 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/red_indicators.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:16:02 PM)
Medium Term Trend Changes – Bar Coloring There is a second trending system in TradeGuider that is designed to be a lot more insensitive to minor trend changes. It’s a volatility-driven system which takes into account how much a market moves. The more a market moves, the more forgiving the system becomes to adverse price excursions against the trend. However, if a market isn’t that volatile, the trending system becomes more responsive to movement. Have a look at the chart below for an example of this system in action: Green signifies a medium term up trend and red signifies a medium term down trend.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:16:58 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/trend_bar_colouring_system.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:17:52 PM)
What I want to show you now are some examples from our Master the Markets “Trainware” course and demonstrate the effect it had in recent trading days in the E-mini S&P market. Lets look at an overview of the E-mini S&P chart we are going to analyze.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:18:11 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/overall%20View.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:18:52 PM)
Now let’s look at some specific Volume Spread Analysis indications of demand. (strength) Stopping Volume Stopping volume is another indicator variant that shows when buying is overcoming selling. A high volume down move, on a wide spread would normally indicate selling. However, if the next day (or bar) is up, closing on the high, then this shows that absorption buying occurred on the previous day (or bar). Only professional money can do this and it is therefore a good indication of strength.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:20:00 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/stopping_volume.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:20:37 PM)
Notice on this chart the ultra high volume activity on a down bar with the price close in the middle of the bar. This can only mean professionals are buying the market otherwise the close would have been at, or near, it’s low. Now, lets look at this in the recent E-mini chart

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:20:58 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/stopping_volume2.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:21:54 PM)
The concept of stopping volume, as with most VSA indicators, have different variations which can make learning this methodology difficult. By using TradeGuider you will be alerted automatically to all variations as they appear, accelerating your learning curve. The next chart we’ll look at will demonstrate what a test looks like. Tests, by their very name, are the professionals testing the amount of supply present in the market. When they test and there is low volume this clearly shows no residual supply and the market is likely to rise in the near future.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:22:28 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/basic_test.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:23:55 PM)
Now let’s look at the recent E-mini chart, please note that the indicator description box refers to the green VSA indicator which the red vertical line is on. Notice the low volume on this test showing the professionals there is very little supply in the market.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:24:10 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/basic_test2.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:24:42 PM)
Now let’s look at some specific Volume Spread Analysis indications of supply (weakness). Let’s take a look at what the end of a rising market looks like.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:25:42 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/end_of_rising_market.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:26:46 PM)
Now let’s see what this looks like on yesterday’s E-mini chart.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:27:31 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/end_of_rising_market2.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:29:56 PM)
Please note the ultra high volume with a very narrow spread closing on it’s high, the professionals are selling at this point to weak holders.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:33:30 PM)
Let's take a look at the closing bar of yesterdays E-mini

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:34:37 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/no_result.jpg

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:36:11 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/elite/no_result2.jpg

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:36:53 PM)
Ok, that's the E-mini! :)

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:38:15 PM)
Now lets see what happened yesterday at the close in the E-mini. Please note that the indicator box refers to the 15 minute bar on the close of the market. This weakness was followed through in today’s trading with the market going 9 points lower at one point during the day.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:38:26 PM)
That was the chart posted above

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:39:28 PM)
Had you known this information yesterday evening you would have known that there was a downward bias to today's market.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:39:51 PM)
What we have shown you here today is only a snapshot of the power of Volume Spread Analysis. Once you understand this trading methodology and learn to apply it in the markets, you will never trade the same again. We would like to invite you to an Elitetrader special live web presentation using HottComm where we will show you these indicators as they appear in the live market. We will do one presentation tomorrow afternoon at 1.30pm EST and another presentation at 9.30am EST on Monday morning, To register please use this link. http://www.tradeguider.com/tradingroom/trading_room.asp#

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:40:18 PM)
We also offer personal one to one demonstrations completely free of charge. Here are those links again for further information, and we would now be happy to take any questions.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:40:40 PM)
That's great, Todd, thanks.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:40:45 PM)
Master the Markets Training Manual Preview http://www.tradeguider.com/ss_myu_demo.asp

MACD (Aug 19, 2004 7:40:59 PM)
Time frames that are used please?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:41:06 PM)
One on One Demonstrations

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:41:17 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/hotline.asp

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:41:29 PM)
Free CD Rom Brochure

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:41:43 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/dlpdf.asp

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:41:52 PM)
We will answer questions now

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:42:09 PM)
We had that question just now on time frames.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:43:02 PM)
Hi MACD, the chart that we demonstrated today was a 15 minute timeframe, the methodology works on all timeframes.

MACD (Aug 19, 2004 7:43:17 PM)
thanks

jkd (Aug 19, 2004 7:43:37 PM)
How does the effectiveness of VSA vary between the NASDAQ and NYSE markets?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:43:53 PM)
I like to look at slightly longer timeframes to determine market direction for tomorrows trading day.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:44:25 PM)
We are also seeing weakness in tomorrows market as well.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:44:37 PM)
Hi JKD,

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:44:42 PM)
Speaking of tomorrow...

dan4321 (Aug 19, 2004 7:44:52 PM)
would you review today emini close for tomorrow's action?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:45:23 PM)
The metodology works on all timeframes and in all markets that post traded volume so it makes no difference which market you look at.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:47:38 PM)
Hi Dan, the market closed with weakness, even though it closed on an upmove... should be a weak open at least unless the professionals gap it up to create confusion... I would look at a downward bias tomorrow.

dan4321 (Aug 19, 2004 7:48:10 PM)
ty

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:48:22 PM)
any more questions?

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 7:48:35 PM)
Yes, we've got a few more...

o10maximus (Aug 19, 2004 7:48:46 PM)
Hi Todd, do you find Tradeguiders trendline clusters to be comparable to aget's MOBs?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:51:07 PM)
Hi Maximus, no they are completely different in the way that they are determined. MOB's are a mathematical equation and TradeGuider's Trend Clusters are not based on mathematics... they are based on chart formations. When they are in the same price area however, they are definitely strong indications of the end of a move.

andrew58 (Aug 19, 2004 7:51:20 PM)
How would VSA apply to markets without obvious volume info and with only weekly close like FOREX spot/cash?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:53:37 PM)
Hi Andrew, TradeGuider requires volume info in order to produce the Volume Spread Analysis indicators, without volume there are parts of the program that will work but not the VSA indicators. With an eSignal feed we are able to read Forex, just not on a daily bar.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:53:49 PM)
We can read it intraday

andrew58 (Aug 19, 2004 7:54:26 PM)
Thanks

Carpe Diem (Aug 19, 2004 7:54:30 PM)
Do you find much signal differences in trading eminis (eg NQ) vs ETFs (eg QQQ)?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:55:26 PM)
What I really like about TradeGuider is it can be used as a decision support tool if you already have a methodology that you are using successfully. It will help keep you out of bad trades and keep you in winning trades longer.

IbGW (Aug 19, 2004 7:57:13 PM)
Hi Todd. Do your VSA indicators take into consideration pre and post market data?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:57:19 PM)
Hi Carpe Diem, you can actually use them together on the same chart to get confirmation from related markets. You can also do the same with markets that are inversely related such as the Swiss Franc and the dollar...if you trade currencies.

Carpe Diem (Aug 19, 2004 7:57:47 PM)
ty

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 7:59:10 PM)
Hi lbGW, our VSA indicators work as long as you are receiving volume information from your datafeed. We currently use RealTick or eSignal for intraday data and any Metastock format data for end-of-day.

IbGW (Aug 19, 2004 7:59:30 PM)
In your example above on the emini S&P.....how do you determine which chart to look at ie. the 15 or 30 / 60 / 90.....to determine market direction for the next day? In chart above the 15 was used, but what if it gives a conflicting signal to say the 30 chart

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:02:18 PM)
Hi lbGW, it pays to look at multiple timeframes in combination. Once you understand how to interpret the markets through Volume Spread Analysis, which you will through our Master the Markets training course, you will quickly get a feel for the market when you look at different timeframes, even if you might have conflicting indications.

IbGW (Aug 19, 2004 8:03:11 PM)
great....thanks.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:03:42 PM)
Todd, this has been great. We have one last question.

jkd (Aug 19, 2004 8:03:50 PM)
Which market(s) will tomorrow's demo be done in?

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:03:57 PM)
And can you post that link again?

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:04:48 PM)
I would also like to announce that we have a mentoring program that will teach the TradeGuider methodology to active traders, please see our website for upcoming details.

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:05:44 PM)
Hi JKD, we will be running the E-mini S&P.

ctr (Aug 19, 2004 8:05:51 PM)
is it possible to say, have two markets up -- there could be room for two charts each -

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:07:23 PM)
We could do that, no problem, link to register to follow, if anyone needs to contact us call our Chicago office and ask for Steve Dennis on 312-373-6270

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:07:27 PM)
http://www.tradeguider.com/tradingroom/trading_room.asp

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:07:45 PM)
Folks, there comes a time when we simply have to let our guests go. And that time has come. Todd... thanks so much for joining us today.

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:07:52 PM)
TradeGuider Systems Ltd. develops and markets TradeGuider, the highly respected decision support system used by serious investors, money managers, professional analysts and stockbrokers. The TradeGuider family includes TradeGuider EOD (for MetaStock format) and TradeGuider RT for intraday data (for eSignal & RealTick.)

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:07:52 PM)
The link above gives you a two week HottComm license for free

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:02 PM)
For more information, you can get in touch with the folks from TradeGuider at: http://www.tradeguider.com/

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:10 PM)
Thank you Andre for all your help and to all here today

Todd Krueger (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:16 PM)
Good trading

Dennis Dorsch (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:46 PM)
Have been tracking the Emini sp & dow with TG for about a month . Very impressed with it's potential.

jkd (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:49 PM)
Thanks Todd. Interesting stuff!

andrew58 (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:52 PM)
Thank you Bye

5R08Astang (Aug 19, 2004 8:08:55 PM)
Thanks, Todd! Thanks, "The Giant"! (...I mean Andre....)

Andre (Aug 19, 2004 8:09:03 PM)
And while this chat session may have ended, the discussion doesn't have to. For additional questions and comments, please see the following thread on our message board: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=37058